Ethereum continues to trade sideways as uncertainty weighs on the entire crypto market. The altcoin king has struggled to regain decisive bullish momentum.
Although the current structure suggests the possibility of a bottom formation, large holders appear to be making aggressive moves.
Ethereum whale sales will not stop
Ethereum whales have displayed unusual behavior in recent sessions. A rapid accumulation phase is followed by an equally aggressive distribution. This volatility indicates uncertainty among large capital participants.
Over the past two weeks, addresses holding between 100,000 and 1 million ETH have sold approximately 1.43 million ETH. At current valuations, this equates to approximately $2.7 billion. Such large distributions have a significant impact on the liquidity situation.
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Selling at this level often reflects late cycle stress rather than early panic. Historically, mass whale evacuations tend to occur near the surrender stage. Large holders may reduce their exposure before the market bottom is widely accepted. These episodes often occur before the structure is flipped once the pressure exhaust is sold.
Ethereum bottom signal strengthens
On-chain data provides additional context. The Net Unrealized Gain and Loss (NUPL) indicator shows that Ethereum is in the capitulation zone. This number indicates that the average holder faces large unrealized losses.
In previous cycles, similar NUPL conditions preceded meaningful reversals. However, Ethereum typically stays in this zone for a long time. Surrender does not mean immediate recovery.
Continuing time in the yield zone often reduces speculative selling. When a weak hand leaves the position, the remaining holders tend to show stronger belief. Gradual stabilization in the NUPL reading could indicate that downside momentum is weakening before a recovery begins.
The Pi Cycle Top indicator also supports a potential ETH bottom story. This metric tracks the relationship between short-term moving averages and long-term moving averages. Historically, convergence has shown to heat up near the top of the cycle.
Conversely, extreme deviations between these averages often coincide with periodic troughs. The current measurements show that there is a meaningful separation between the two curves. A similar divergence pattern previously indicated a recovery zone.
Historical examples show that gap widening precedes upward reversals. Although the timing remains uncertain, this structural configuration is consistent with late-stage corrective behavior. Combined with the capitulation indicators, the data suggests that Ethereum may be nearing stabilization rather than an early bearish expansion.
ETH price is above support
At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $1,960. Despite the whale distribution, the asset remains consistently above the $1,928 support level. This zone remains technically important in maintaining short-term structure.
Although the overall outlook remains cautious, a sharp decline in the economy is being avoided due to underlying demand. Buyers appear to be looking to accumulate amounts close to the perceived value level. With continued support, Ethereum could challenge the resistance at $2,027. A clearing of $2,108 will confirm a breakout from the consolidation.
However, downside risks cannot be ignored. If bearish momentum strengthens, Ethereum could lose support at $1,928. The breakdown could bring up $1,820 as the next floor. If the bearish situation continues, it could extend to $1,750, invalidating the short-term bullish theory.
