Dogecoin price is trading around $0.17 and is struggling to maintain its structure as 2025 draws to a close. The coin has spent most of this quarter declining, suggesting that its usual year-end strength may be missing this time. Traders have come to expect Dogecoin’s strong fourth-quarter performance and are watching closely in hopes of a second-half recovery. However, the tone of the market appears to be very different than it has been in recent years.
The reason behind this fourth-quarter weakness lies in what’s going on behind the scenes among the holders, whales, and traders who once built Dogecoin’s biggest rally.
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Holders and whales are running out of support.
To understand why this quarter feels heavy, it helps to look back at Dogecoin’s consistent fourth quarter streak. Meme coins typically end the year in the green, rising 14.2% in 2022, 44.2% in 2023, and 176.6% in 2024. However, the 2025 pattern is rapidly breaking down, and much of its weakness has to do with the actions of on-chain holders.
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Dogecoin’s HODL wave is an indicator of how long investors have held the coin, indicating a decline in confidence.
Short-term holders (1-3 months) reached 17.47% of supply in January, but currently stand at 7.24%. Long-term holders (1-2 years), who held 40.32% as of July, now control only 21.87% of the supply.
This steady decline means fewer coins are sitting quietly in wallets and more coins are returning to circulation, increasing the risk of selling pressure.
Whale activity strengthens that view.
Sponsored wallets holding 10 million to 100 million Dogecoins have been selling rapidly since October 11, with their stash reduced from 24.61 billion Dogecoins to 20.33 billion Dogecoins. At the current DOGE price of $0.17, it would lose approximately $730 million in value. The largest group, holding 1 billion Dogecoins, has traded back and forth throughout the year without forming a clear buying trend. The only steady accumulation has come from intermediate whales holding between 100 million and 1 billion Dogecoin, with their balances increasing from 27.68 billion to 32.38 billion since October 28th.
The problem is that these whale pods are moving in opposite directions. Despite all the talk about ETFs, price momentum will be slow to build without coordination among large holders, leading to the fourth quarter of this year being weaker than any quarter since 2020.
Volume breakdown and derivatives bias add pressure
The weekly on-balance volume (OBV) chart, which tracks whether price movements are supported by actual buying, fell below the trend line for the first time since early 2025.
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When OBV collapses, it means a price rebound is occurring without solid volume. In other words, this rebound is not supported by genuine inflows. This is a sign that the bull market could quickly fade.
Dogecoin derivatives data further strengthens this caution. On Gate.io, one of the largest perpetual markets, short liquidation leverage totals $776.75 million, while long positions are only $151.77 million. This is more than 5x the number of shorts than longs, which shows where traders stand on Dogecoin. This data is for the next 30 days into December.
This extreme imbalance is bearish, but could also create a short squeeze setup. If the price rises even slightly, some short sales may be forced to close, causing a temporary spike. However, without volume support from OBV, such a move could stall near significant resistance.
Dogecoin price and last line of defense around $0.17
Dogecoin’s weekly chart is still, albeit just barely, within the ascending channel that started in April 2025. Although this structure remains technically bullish, the price is currently just around the lower trendline at $0.17.
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If this support is broken and DOGE price closes below the weekly candlestick, the next zone will be around $0.15. This also marks the first complete collapse of Dogecoin’s weekly structure in over seven months.
However, the RSI on the same time frame suggests a possible recovery.
From October 6th to November 10th, the price made higher lows and the RSI lowered lower lows, resulting in a hidden bullish divergence. This pattern often indicates that the broader trend may still have another move up.
If the channel support holds and the RSI pattern develops, Dogecoin could attempt a 33% bounce towards $0.22. This level coincides with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement mark. If the Bitwise Spot ETF launches by the end of November with an automatic approval process, it could provide some support to the rebound theory.
Holding above $0.17 and regaining $0.22 would allow Dogecoin to limit the damage in Q4 and perhaps even end 2025 in a mild green. However, losing this channel would end the multi-quarter bullish setup and lead to a decline towards $0.15 or below by the end of 2025.
