Bitcoin price failed to clear $88,100 with any confidence. It was trading near $87,700, mostly flat on the day, but still down more than 3% this week. The rebound from $80,500 gave traders hope that a bottom had formed. However, some new signals suggest that this bottom could be tested again or even broken.
Both charts and on-chain data show the same risks. This means you may not be ready for recovery yet.
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Two bearish signals still support the downtrend
The first concern comes from the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which tracks momentum. From November 18th to November 24th, Bitcoin recorded lower highs, while RSI recorded higher highs. This is a hidden bearish divergence. Usually appears within a downtrend and supports continuation rather than reversal.
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This is consistent with a broader downward trend that began in early October. If the current divergence continues, the next leg could retest recent lows.
The second warning comes from the Exponential Moving Average (EMA). EMA is a moving average that puts more weight on recent prices, so it reacts faster to trend changes.
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The 100-day EMA is almost close to the 200-day EMA, forming a bearish crossover. A bearish crossover between these two averages often indicates a weakening of the trend structure.
The fact that this crossover is forming near the $88,100 resistance makes this area even more important. If a crossover is confirmed while Bitcoin price is below that level, the recovery setup will lose power.
Whale activity adds pressure on the downside
On-chain data supports this caution. Wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have been reducing their holdings since November 16th. As of November 25, the number of wallets has decreased from 1,984 to 1,962.
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A similar decline in whale wallets occurred earlier this month. The number of wallets decreased between November 1st and November 5th, and Bitcoin fell by about 8% in the following days.
The same pattern has emerged again, only this time the price is much closer to the recent lows. If whales continue to reduce their positions in line with bearish signals on the chart, the BTC bottoming theory will enter “upside down” territory.
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Major Bitcoin price levels to watch
Bitcoin needs to break above $88,100 at the daily close to weaken the divergence, possibly stop the EMA from compressing, and regain near-term control.
A strong move above this level could pave the way to $93,800, while stronger momentum could pave the way to $107,400. However, these higher targets are unlikely for now as long as the current bearish signals remain active.
On the downside, the key line is $80,500. Losing it would confirm an 8.32% decline from current levels, similar to the whale-led decline in early November.
This also indicates that the previous low may not have been the true bottom. If that happens, BTC’s bottoming process could extend further into the cycle. Bitcoin has rebounded from its lows, but the bearish trend on the chart is clear.
