Hedera remains under pressure with continued declines trapping HBAR in a month-long downtrend. Price has struggled to attract meaningful demand, and attempts at recovery have slowed.
Breaking out of this structure requires stronger investor support, which remains limited at this point. This lack of certainty gives derivatives traders time to take positions cautiously.
HBAR traders are under threat
Futures positioning clearly shows a bearish trend. The liquidation map shows that short contracts have greater exposure than long contracts at key price levels. This imbalance reflects traders’ expectations that HBAR may remain under downward pressure before a sustained recovery materializes.
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However, this setup creates a potential compression scenario. If HBAR breaks out of the downtrend and rises towards the $0.1035 resistance, nearly $5 million of short positions could face liquidation. Such an event could force bearish traders to cover, create sudden buying pressure, and potentially shift near-term sentiment.
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On-chain momentum signals provide a variety of situations. Chaikin Money Flow has formed a bullish divergence from the lows from earlier this week. While prices continue to fall, CMF is trending higher, suggesting selling pressure is easing rather than increasing.
Despite this discrepancy, no confirmation has been obtained. The CMF has not yet crossed the zero line, indicating that inflows are dominating outflows. Capital continues to exit HBAR, but at a slow pace. Until this change is complete, the bullish signal will be provisional rather than definitive.
HBAR price may not rebound yet
At the time of writing, HBAR is trading around $0.0903. Price movements at this level have not inspired investor confidence. Bearish sentiment is growing among futures traders who see little reason to exit positions prematurely as weak participation continues to limit inflows.
The near-term outlook depends on whether HBAR can break its downward trend. If the price continues to consolidate above the $0.0901 support, the downside risk will be reduced for the time being. If inflows start to improve as prices stabilize, HBAR could move towards the $0.1030 resistance. Reaching this level will put pressure on short positions and may trigger a liquidation.
If conditions worsen, downside risks remain significant. A break below the $0.0901 support could expose HBAR to further losses. In this scenario, the price could fall towards $0.0830. If the weakness continues, the decline could widen to $0.0751, completely invalidating the bullish argument and confirming a continuation of the broader downtrend.
