Robinhood stock has rebounded nearly 23% from its February 5 low of around $71. On the surface, this looks like a strong recovery for HOOD. The company also just posted its best fiscal year ever.
But the bigger picture tells a different story. Weak cryptocurrency activity, declining capital flows, and rising technological risks suggest that this recovery may not be long-lasting. For now, downward pressure remains dominant.
Profitability and cryptocurrency drag are pulling in opposite directions
Robinhood had a strong year in 2025. Full-year revenue reached approximately $4.5 billion, an increase of more than 50% year over year. Net income reached nearly $1.9 billion. Fourth quarter sales increased 27% and earnings per share exceeded expectations. Options trading, interest income and gold subscription fees all increased significantly.
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These numbers show that the core business is improving. Robinhood no longer relies solely on meme stocks and crypto trading. It has become more diverse and more stable.
The company also launched a public testnet for Robinhood Chain. It is an Ethereum Layer 2 network built on Arbitrum. It aims to support tokenized stocks, 24/7 trading, and DeFi tools. This is a long-term growth move, not a short-term price factor. However, problems remain with cryptocurrencies.
Crypto revenue fell 38% year over year to approximately $221 million. This decline was related to Bitcoin’s pullback and lower trading volumes. Cryptocurrencies still account for the majority of activity, so any slowdown will negatively impact total revenue. Fourth-quarter sales were about $50 million less than analysts expected.
The market took note of the mistake.
The stock price fell about 7% in after-hours trading after the earnings call. This showed that investors still view cryptocurrencies as a big risk. Even strong profits and new products could not compensate for its weaknesses. Robinhood’s share price appears to have reignited fears surrounding the break of a bearish pattern following the crypto-specific underwhelming performance.
HOOD price broke below the descending channel on February 2nd, causing a nearly 30% breakdown. The $71 level provided support, but crypto-led weakness could soon push the price lower.
This is why the post-February 5th rebound looks fragile. It’s not a new uptrend, it’s happening within a broader downtrend.
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Weak money flows and mortality cross-risks signal weakening confidence
Price fluctuations alone can’t explain everything. Money flow indicators show major investors remain cautious.
One important tool is Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). CMF combines price and volume to show whether major companies are buying or selling. If it remains above zero, the financial institution is typically accumulating. If it’s down, they’re exiting or moving away.
As of now, Robinhood’s CMF remains negative.
Even during the 23% rebound, CMF was unable to get back to the zero line. It also fell below the downtrend line. This means that this rally did not have strong big money support.
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This makes the rebound unstable. Moving averages add another caveat.
Exponential moving averages (EMAs) give more weight to recent prices. Traders use them to determine the strength of a trend. When the short-term average falls below the long-term average, momentum weakens.
Robinhood is currently facing a “death cross” crisis. This occurs when the 50-day EMA falls below the 200-day EMA. It is often a sign of long-term weakness.
Two bearish crossovers have already formed on January 30th and February 4th. After the January signal, the stock price fell nearly 30%. Now the 50th is starting to move towards the 200th again. If this crossover is confirmed, downside pressure may increase.
Only one person tested mildly positive.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) compares the volume on rising and falling days. Indicates whether the buyer or seller has the upper hand. From September to February, OBV formed higher lows, while HOOD formed lower lows. This suggests that some retail investors are still accumulating money.
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Even this support could fade if cryptocurrencies continue to be vulnerable. Without strong demand from big wallets, retail purchases alone are unlikely to be enough to reverse the trend.
New downward channel marks key Robinhood stock price levels
Chart structure remains bearish.
Robinhood has been trading in a downward channel since October. A descending channel is formed when price cuts lower highs and lowers lower lows within parallel trend lines. This indicates a controlled but sustained sell-off.
Currently, a new parallel channel is forming based on recent price trends. This updated structure indicates over 40% downside potential if the lower trendline breaks. The first important HOOD price level is $71, the last support zone.
As long as the price remains above it, the rebound has a chance to survive despite the crypto resistance. A full break below $71 will push levels further down. If this happens, the next major zone will be around $55.
There is still significant resistance to the upside. To improve its near-term structure, HOOD’s stock price would need to recover $87 and then $98. Beyond that, $107 and $119 are significant barriers.
