Real-world asset tokens continue to flow through February 2026, with several notable major RWA tokens trading more than 80% below their recent highs. The decline was widespread and unrelenting.
However, heading into March, technical reversal signals are starting to form across multiple charts, supported by reduced currency inflows and steady ETF demand. Here are three tokenized asset projects whose setups are starting to change.
Stella (XLM)
Stellar’s real-world asset footprint is growing despite the token’s struggles. According to data from RWA.xyz, the network’s decentralized asset value increased by 25% in the past 30 days, reaching $1.27 billion. On the institutional investor side, CME Group launched Stellar Futures on February 9, 2026. Both standard and micro-sized contracts are now live, allowing financial institutions a regulated transition to XLM for the first time.
Nevertheless, XLM prices remain under pressure. Stellar has fallen about 40% in the past three months, trading around $0.154. But the charts are starting to tell a different story.
From December 18th to February 24th, XLM recorded lower lows, while the momentum indicator Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed higher lows, a standard bullish divergence. This is a textbook reversal signal and has recent precedent. A similar setup appeared around February 11th, after which Stellar rose about 23% before correcting.
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If the current divergence continues into March, the first hurdle lies at $0.164, a level that has bounced back and forth between support and resistance multiple times. A clearing of this would open the way to $0.185 (where the last rally stopped) and then $0.210, which coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and would mark the first real structural change in months. Beyond that, $0.230 is in play.
On the downside, the failure to recover $0.164 keeps Stellar within the range. If the price falls below $0.136, the reversal theory becomes invalid.
With RWA adoption accelerating and institutional infrastructure operational, Stellar (XLM) stands out as a real-world asset token to watch in March. The foundations are being laid. This divergence suggests that prices may be ready to catch up.
chain link (link)
Chainlink continues to lead as the oracle infrastructure for the tokenized asset economy, and the performance of its spot ETFs strengthens its position. Bitcoin ETFs have suffered nearly six consecutive weeks of net outflows, while Chainlink hasn’t recorded a single week of losses since the ETF’s launch.
Such consistency in a risk-off environment is rare across the RWA sector and indicates that demand at the institutional level has remained stable despite deteriorating overall crypto market sentiment.
On the chart, LINK is forming an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern on the 12-hour time frame, a structure that has a breakout potential of approximately 35% if the neckline is broken.
However, the neckline is sloping to the downside, meaning a 12-hour break above $9.00 would be needed to trigger a move. Chainlink had already tested this level from February 19th to 21st, bouncing off the right shoulder, but failed at $9.00 and withdrew. This refusal makes the neckline even more important. If the daily closing price is confirmed to be above this, it would be a strong signal both technically and sentimentally.
If LINK regains $9.00, the breakout path opens towards $11.30, matching the movement measured from the pattern. Any major resistance could still stop the expected rally at $10.00.
On the downside, losing $8.00 weakens the structure. A decisive break below $7.20 will completely negate the inverse head and shoulders and shift the bias to the bearish side.
With on-chain adoption growing across tokenized securities and cross-chain interoperability, and ETF flows showing no signs of slowing down, Chainlink remains one of the strong RWA tokens to watch heading into March. If the neckline test fails, the next attempt is critical. If we break above $9.00, this setup could result in one of the cleaner moves in the real world asset space this quarter.
Ondo Finance (ONDO)
Ondo Finance remains one of the largest tokenized asset platforms in the real-world asset sector, with over $2.5 billion locked in total. Despite its growth, ONDO token has not kept up. Since reaching an all-time high of $2.14 in December 2024, ONDO has fallen over 80% and is currently trading at $0.25. This disconnect makes it one of the most heavily discounted real-world asset tokens compared to the expansion of the underlying platform.
Potential changes are now emerging on the technological front. From January 25th to February 24th, ONDO formed lower lows and Relative Strength Index recorded higher lows. This creates the same standard bullish divergence, classic early reversal signal as XLM discussed earlier.
On-chain data strengthens that signal. Foreign exchange inflows fell sharply after February 24, dropping from 42.91 million ONDO to just 4.54 million ONDO. This probably means around 89% fewer tokens moving to exchanges for sale.
If currency inflows collapse at the same time as a divergence signal forms, it suggests that the selling pressure behind the downtrend is weakening.
Looking ahead, the first significant level lies at $0.26. A sustained break above this level would confirm short-term strength and pave the way for $0.30, which has repeatedly acted as resistance in recent weeks.
A successful recovery at $0.30 would strengthen the reversal structure and allow a move towards $0.36. An increase to $0.30 would represent an increase of approximately 19% from the current price.
On the downside, support is located at $0.23. Losing that level increases the risk of another leg decline towards $0.20. This level remains the most important structural floor. A break below $0.20 would weaken the early reversal theory and confirm that the long-term downtrend is still contained.
