Bitcoin is attempting to recoup recent losses after regaining the $95,000 level, which has restored near-term optimism. This rally pushed BTC to a two-month high, but the recovery is far from complete.
In fact, Bitcoin is currently facing a much bigger challenge. The zone between $98,000 and $110,000 represents the toughest resistance to date.
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Bitcoin holders have a chance to sell
Bitcoin’s struggles become clearer when examining the long-term holder cost-based distribution heatmap. Since November 2025, any rally has stalled within a dense supply cluster ranging from approximately $93,000 to $110,000. This area contains coins acquired during the previous peak, creating sustained selling pressure when the price returns to this area again.
Each attempt to move up into this range triggered new distributions from long-term holders. As a result, Bitcoin was unable to sustain structural recovery despite repeated breakouts. As prices once again put pressure on this indirect supply, the market faces a familiar test of resilience. Absorbing this distribution remains essential for sustained trend reversals.
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On a broader scale, long-term holders’ net realized gains and losses present a more benign picture. According to current data, long-term holders realize a net profit of approximately 12,800 BTC every week. This number is significantly lower than the previous cycle’s peak of over 100,000 BTC per week.
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This slowdown indicates that profit-taking remains active, but less aggressive. While this easing reduces immediate downside risk, it does not eliminate selling pressure. The direction of the market currently depends on the strength of demand, especially from buyers who accumulated Bitcoin in Q2 2025. If demand cannot absorb supply, the upside momentum will weaken.
The key long-term benchmark remains the true market average near $81,000. Continuing to trade above this level would support a constructive macro outlook. Failure to sustain for an extended period would significantly increase the risk of capitulation, mirroring the prolonged drawdown seen between April 2022 and April 2023.
BTC price needs strength to break above $98,000
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $96,302, a two-month high. Sentiment increased above $95,000 and BTC approached the resistance level at $98,000. Short-term momentum remains constructive as long as prices remain above recently recovered support.
However, it will be difficult for the stock to break above $98,000 and sustain above $95,000. Indirect supply remains heavy, and the rally could quickly reverse if selling picks up again. Bitcoin could fall below $95,000 if investors choose to book profits. If this happens, there is a high possibility of an even bigger pullback towards $91,471.
A bullish scenario remains possible if long-term holders reduce their selling further. If circulation dries up, Bitcoin could top $98,000 and challenge $100,000. If you switch that psychological level to support, the sentiment will improve significantly. From there, BTC has a realistic path towards $110,000, but new resistance dynamics will emerge once it crosses six digits.
