What determines whether a new token launch
rallies or flops? This year has seen a number of extremely hyped tokens that have completely face
planted. And this has led to a recent report that breaks down some of these launches. So, in this
video, we will be breaking it down by looking at the patterns that separated the winners from
the losers and turning those insights into a framework you can actually use to make sure you
nail the next big token launch. My name is Nick and you’re watching the Coin Bureau. Now, before
we dive into this report, I must make one thing absolutely crystal clear. Everything’s so clear.
I am not a financial adviser and nothing in this video is financial or investment advice. This
is purely educational content meant to help you stay ahead of the crypto roller coaster. And if
that sounds good to you, then hit those like and subscribe buttons, fire up that notification
bell, and let’s get to it. The report we’re summarizing today comes from Iraqis Finance and is
titled, quote, “Why your TGE will probably fail, Lessons from H1 2025’s top token launches.” We’ll
keep things short in this video, but there’s a link to the full deep dive waiting for you in
the description for you to come back and read later. Now, if you think new token carnage, you
probably picture meme coins. But Arachus aimed its microscope at 10 of the biggest, most hyped
launches from January through May this year. The research looked at projects like Kaio, Beer Chain,
and Zora, each rocking valuations in the hundreds of millions or billions of dollars plus. Despite
those skyhigh initial valuations, six out of 10 ended May well below their launch prices. Only
four Story Protocols IP, Wallet Connects WCT, Initia’s initi, and Kaio managed to close in the
green. And even then, only three of those beat BTC itself. In other words, a significant majority
of 2025’s most hyped launches turned into instant bag holder situations despite all the blue chip
optics. So, why the face plant? Well, among other specific issues we will dig into today, Arachus
touches on three broader themes you’ll hear us circle back to throughout this video. First, we
have liquidity conditions. Massive day one volumes seem to dry up very fast, leaving shallow order
books and widening spreads. Once the exit doors start closing, even a modest amount of selling
has a significantly negative impact on the price. Second, there’s the price sticker shock of
lofty fully diluted valuation, and that’s the total value of a crypto if all possible tokens
were in circulation. Of course, private round investors who get in cheap love the juicy markup.
But when retail clocks the gap between the private sale and the public price, the token is much less
desirable. And that perception alone can trigger the first wave of sell pressure if it’s not
already due to early investors actively dumping. The third broader theme is the all too familiar
reflexive sentiment price loops. Early red candles invite more red candles. Tokens that lag BTC out
of the gate tend to keep lagging while those that sprint ahead usually stay ahead. a trend we’ll
be looking at closer in the rest of the video. Zooming out, the losers in this studied group
shed between 25 and 74% of their total dollar value since their respective token generation vent
or first day of trading. So the next time someone tells you a big exchange is listing a token or
the backing of prominent investors makes a launch safe, remember the overarching themes and stay
skeptical. Anyways, as mentioned, out of the 10 token launches tracked, only four. IPWCT, Init,
and Kaio were still trading above their opening price by May 31st, which is the end of this study.
The top three performing tokens managed to outpace BTC’s rally to new all-time highs. And that
equates to a roughly 1 in3 rate for tokens that outperformed BTC. Consider that a reminder that
hyped token launches are far from a guaranteed success and some large cap launches can show price
action just as rough as meme coins. Beyond that, this also tees up the single most useful signal
in the whole report, early relative strength. Arachus sliced the price data in BTC terms and
found a pattern so obvious that you could spot it if you were blind. Tokens that beat BTC in
their first couple of weeks trading tend to keep pulling ahead, while those that stumbled out
of the gate almost never made up the ground. And this is not exactly surprising when you consider
how crypto assets often trade. It’s momentum, a pure and simple. When a new coin can swim faster
than the market tied on day one, traders lean bullish on every dip. Liquidity providers stay
in the pool and the self-reinforcing loop begins. Higher prices tend to lead to higher prices. The
opposite loop, however, is just as vicious. Early red candles cause more people to panic. Bad price
action spooks liquidity providers. Spreads widen and that momentum to the downside can result in
a very red chart in no time at all. There are of course some exceptions to keep in mind when
considering these general rules. For example, Kaio bucked the rule by slipping under BTC before
clawing its way back to the winner’s circle and Initia briefly flashed green versus BTC before
flatlining. Those exceptions serve as a caution. Early relative strength is a good thing, but it
is no guarantee of future results. Nevertheless, it’s a useful filter if you want to narrow your
focus to the most promising assets. Many will drop off quickly, and early performers simply
indicates which ones deserve closer attention, not that they’re guaranteed to succeed. So, how
do you actually track that first jump without watching price feeds 24/7? A token launch can
spray data across half a dozen DEX pools and every other bot on Telegram. You could try juggling
all of that manually, or you could streamline the whole process with Axiom, a trading terminal
designed to simplify your onchain trading. Axiom wraps all of the most important token information
into a single interface. The token goes live and the Axiom dashboard can immediately pull
in the first candle, circulating supply, onchain pool depth, holder concentration, and
much more. A quick glance at that can give you an idea as to whether a token is actually even worth
considering. If you’re unfamiliar with Axiom, then be sure to check out our tutorial on that using
this video right over here. And if you want to start trading right now, then we’ve got a special
offer for you. Follow this QR code or hit the link down in the description and you’ll get given a 10%
cash back on your trades for life as well as two times points multiplier which could possibly
help you get more of any potential upcoming Axiom airdrop. Now, as I’m sure we are all well
aware, price momentum in crypto can be fragile. Some quick ways to kill momentum include dumping
more tokens on the market than buyers can absorb or slapping a sticker price on day one that makes
every potential buyer feel like they’re just exit liquidity. The report slices the problem in two
ways. Circulating supply and the price difference between private sale rounds and the token price
at launch. Both strands are associated with the same monster, supply overhang. Let’s start with
the valuation difference between private and public investors. The authors mapped out a few of
the private to public valuations and showed that most launches sold tokens to the public at major
premiums and got punished for doing so. So token launched at a whopping 1,200% above the price
secured by investors in its last private raise. Sure enough, the token hit the finish line of
the study period at a 25% loss. Bera chains token opened public trading at a massive $4.3
billion fully diluted valuation. Despite being the most hyped token launched, at least according
to the authors, bearer was the worst performing token of all, finishing the study period at a
74% loss. By contrast, IP and init opened at modest markups and stayed in the green with IP
even outperforming BTC over the stretch of the study. The sample size is small, but this paints
a very clear picture. We are not in the wild 2021 style bull run and investors are more conscious of
becoming private investor exit liquidity. The only premium outlier that worked was Kaio. It launched
at an eyewatering 1 800% markup and yet rallied anyway. However, this is undoubtedly thanks to
Kaio’s product market fit and an AI narrative the market couldn’t ignore. So, heavy public premiums
usually weigh down price unless the team builds something users actually use and love along with a
white hot story line that keeps buyers interested. Build something that’s useful and exciting and
the market rewards you. Wild. That’s wild. And meanwhile, circulating supply tells the other
half of the story. Although crypton natives have complained in the past about projects that launch
with an initially low circulating token supply, leaving a relative large unlock in the future,
the study showed interesting results. Two out of the four projects that ended in the green
had the lowest initial circulating supplies, and they were the only projects to float less than
20% of tokens at launch. Initias in it had the lowest circulating supply at launch with 14.9% but
kept the vesting cliff very shallow. It launched at a conservative valuation, let retail through
a Binance launch pool and surprise surprise held its listing price through May. So it appears
when the free float is thin and investors can see a reasonable unlock schedule, sellers won’t
necessarily stampede the order books all at once. Now, airdrops add another dimension to this whole
picture. The authors charted airdrop allocations between 5 and 28% and found no niche correlation
with token price performance. Wallet Connect dropped 18.5% of supply and printed in the green.
Zora dropped 10% to users and the token price absolutely cratered in the first few weeks of
trading. What appears to matter more than size is expectation management. If claimants see a greedy
private round or smell a slow liquidity fade, the instinct to dump can override any impulse
to hold. So roll these variables together and we already have a strong checklist. First, peak
at the private round. If investors are sitting on a big 20x gain before trading starts, ask yourself
who’s left to buy higher. Second, scan the vesting schedule and current circulating supply. An
initially low circulating supply can actually be bullish provided there’s a sensible unlock
schedule. Third, track narrative fit. Kaiito’s token overcame a myriad of red flags because it
arrived on the market with the backdrop of an undeniable product market fit. In contrast, beer
chains bearer tried to coast on brand hype without delivering on product and gravity did the rest.
You may have noticed, by the way, that none of this requires insider connections. Every serious
project publishes tokconomics, vesting cliffs, and last round numbers in its documentation.
And if it doesn’t, you’re likely better off ignoring it. Skimming those PDFs for a 15 minutes
can have a big impact on your success at trading token launches. So up to this point we focused
on project specific factors that influence the performance of a new token launch. Now it’s time
to shift to the broader picture. Market timing. More specifically, how results of a token launch
align with Bitcoin’s market movements. Every token launch is overshadowed by Bitcoin. Between January
and May, the Orange Coin swung from about 76K to 111K, pulling every other headline token launch
into its gravitational pull. The authors lined up each launch against the 30-day BTC move that
came just before it and found that when a token launches right after a big BTC rally, fresh tokens
can walk into a hangover. Space and Times SXT was a clear example of this. It entered the market
just after a 35% BTC moonshot and then proceeded to sink 29% in a few weeks. Zora’s launch followed
a milder but still bullish trend and faceplanted just as decisively going on to end the study
period at a 66% loss. The logic is rather straightforward. A big BTC run gets the animal
spirits going and people jump on any bullish trend they can find. Once that bid exhausts, however,
things simmer down quickly and big pullbacks follow, particularly for altcoins. Launching
straight into that market exhaustion is a tough hurdle for any token to overcome. On the other
end of the spectrum, the story is quite different. IP and WCT went live when Bitcoin was chopping
sideways. Expectations were muted, the spotlight was smaller, and both tokens found room to rally
and ended the study as the top two gainers. So, does that mean if BTC is flat, then a new token
launch stands a better chance of success? Well, no. Beer chains bearer floated in a quiet March
market and still bled out almost immediately. The study shows that timing isn’t everything,
but the sample followed in the study does tilt slightly in one direction. Euphoric BTC candles
before a launch push the odds a bit more toward the downside for the token. So, how might traders
use this information? Well, simply by keeping an eye on Bitcoin’s 30-day percentage change, as they
did in the study. If Bitcoin has just rallied by 20 plus% and begins to show signs of exhaustion,
it’s probably best to treat any imminent token launch with some caution. Now, to be clear, that
doesn’t mean it’s smart to pile in and short the token either. Just know that the upside runway is
shorter because buyers in the market are already stretched as it is. On the other hand, if BTC
is dozing and not doing very much, the launch has a cleaner route towards some considerable
gains. Building on this, if we add the additional layer of relative strength to BTC, as discussed
earlier, we end up with an even more compelling signal. Early outperformance while Bitcoin
goes sideways is combustible in the best way. By contrast, early weakness right after a BTC
spike is a flashing red sign. While we’re still dealing with probabilities and nothing is
guaranteed, the data makes one thing very clear. Ignoring Bitcoin can be risky. Even if you
are extremely bullish on a new token launch, it’s important to consider the broader market and how
much appetite there is for the new shiny thing. Beyond all of the things we’ve discussed so far,
the report also outlines one more important factor when weighing up a fresh tokens potential. Trading
volume. On launch day, the order books raw, but the music tends to fade fast. The authors
logged several tokens clearing $2 billion in volume in their first 24 hours of trading. The
analysts decided to look at the difference between the average daily volume in the token’s first
month against the average daily volume in May, the final month window of the study. Berachchain
and Redstone’s respective tokens both watched their volumes evaporate by over 70% according to
the study and their price charts clearly followed suit. By the end of the study period, only story
protocols IP was the true exception. Daily volumes for IP had shrunk 86% from its opening month,
despite the token still sitting at nearly double its launch price. While volume alone doesn’t
predict upside, tokens that saw positive returns saw lower volume drop off as a group. By contrast,
almost all of the tokens that saw a drop in volume posted negative returns, while big volume drop
offs typically came with big price declines. So practically speaking, we should treat volume
like the heartbeat of a fresh launch. Right after launch, volume is usually high. If that energy
drops off sharply though, like if volume falls by half in the first month and the price is moving
up, it’s a sign that interest is fading and the token is more likely to keep on sliding. You could
also look at liquidity conditions. A shallow deck pools and illquid sex order books are the market’s
equivalent of labored breathing. Finally, we can even overlay Bitcoin’s own pulse as we discussed
earlier. If Bitcoin is cooling after a rally and the token’s trading volume just fell through the
floor, that’s certainly a signal to wait for a better opportunity. Now, zooming out, here’s the
big picture of what we’ve learned from this study. A list of prestigious investor names and large cap
status doesn’t necessarily mean much for a token’s success. In fact, it can be a bad omen. Early
Bitcoin outperformance is the cleanest bullish tell, and early Bitcoin underperformance often
leads to more red candles. Heavy public premiums generally doom price action unless product market
fit is undeniably real. Launching straight after a big BTC rally can wind up sucking oxygen out
of the debuting coin, while flat price action can offer calmer waters. And when day one volume
dries up faster than a meme coin in a bare market, price usually follows. Put all those signals
together and you end up with a trading mindset that’s less ape and prey and more calculate
and allocate. It won’t make crypto any less volatile and nothing is guaranteed, but it gives
you improved odds you can actually read. And let me add one final note here. This report focused on
the early price action of new tokens, but a rough start doesn’t mean a token is doomed. For example,
Zora was one of the biggest losers in the study, but has since gone on to 10x. Just something to uh
keep in mind when searching for potential oversold projects. So, with that said, if this deep dive
helped you tighten your filters for fresh token launches, do the algorithm a favor by smashing
that like button, subscribing to the channel, and ringing that bell so you don’t miss the next
video. And if you want to learn more about how to approach crypto trading in general, then be sure
to check out our video right over here. That’s all for me today. As always, thank you guys very much
for watching and I’ll see you in the next video.
