Crypto’s market capitalization reached a record high of $4 trillion in July. At the same time, Bitcoin’s advantage fell to 61.5%, the lowest since April. These are clear signals that confirm the official launch of the Altcoin season, according to analysts.
The key issue now is when investors need to exit the market. Based on insights from experienced traders, this article outlines some key elements to watch.
Altcoin investors began seeing profits in July
Most Altcoin investors who started buying in June are likely to have seen profits by now. This is because Altcoin’s market capitalization (Total2) has since risen 44% to $1.5 trillion.
GlassNode’s proprietary indicators will check capital turnover into Altcoins from early July.
“The Altseason indicator of Glassnode fired on July 9th. This means that Stablecoin supply has expanded and capital has flowed into BTC and ETH, while Altcoin’s market capitalization has risen.
Today, CryptoBubbles data shows the green market. Many altcoins range from 10% to 20% or more.
However, history shows that the Altcoin season in the second half of 2024 has dropped sharply. Many altcoins have dropped by 50% to 90%. Many investors were unable to act quickly and saw their portfolios sink deep into losses.
So identifying when you’re going to make a profit is just as important as identifying when the Altcoin season will begin.
Analysts recommend four factors to determine exit timing
The simplest and most widely used signal is the AltCoin Season Index. This index is commonly used to identify an entry point. However, once the cap is reached it also serves as a warning to the broader market.
At the time of writing, Coinglass reports that the index is at 49. Once you reach 70-100 points, investors are encouraged to make a profit.
“The Altcoin Season Index is rising, and Altcoin’s market capitalization has been rising significantly recently. Once the index exceeds 70, it’s time to sell Altcoins. – Coinglas reported.
For other investors, technical analysis of Altcoin Market Cap (Total3) is a guide. Analysts such as Peter Brandt and Greeny Believe Total3 form a cup-and-handle pattern.
Using that pattern measurement theory, Total3 could reach a $2 trillion goal. This may be an important point that Altcoin holders should consider leaving.
Some investors track the capital flow cycle to determine when the season ends. For example, Investor Cats believes the market is currently in the second phase of a four-stage cycle.
“ETH has begun to outperform BTC in terms of returns, meaning we’ve moved to the second phase of the Altcoin season,” Nekoz said.
With this framework:
Phase 1 is Bitcoin outperform. Phase 2 is Ethereum, which surpasses Bitcoin. In Phase 3, you will see a large altcoin rally. Phase 4 is often the final stages of the altcoin season for small altcoins and meme coin pumps.
Many observers are closely monitoring this progress.
The last factor to consider is Bitcoin Domination (BTC.D). In July, BTC.D fell from 65.5% to 61%, marking its biggest monthly decline since November 2024. Analysts look at the trendlines of previous cycles and believe the AltCoin season could continue until BTC.D drops from 48% to 50%.
All investors probably have a strategy. However, historical experience shows that holding altcoins for longer is often a loss, unlike Bitcoin, which tends to recover better. The risks increase even more as the market heats up.
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