As blockchain technology and artificial intelligence continue to converge, x402, a standard that allows AI agents to perform automated on-chain payments, was expected to serve as a gateway to the emerging agent economy.
However, recent data shows a sharp decline in x402 transaction volume. This trend raises questions about whether the initial hype may have fizzled out just a few months after its meteoric rise.
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x402 transactions reduced by over 92%
According to the Artemis report, the concept of x402’s “agent payments” may be more fantasy than reality at this point. While tools like OpenClaw, Moltbook, and specialized agent wallets are rapidly gaining traction on social media and developer communities, on-chain data tells a completely different story.
In December 2025, x402 averaged approximately 731,000 transactions per day. By February 2026, the number of transactions per day had fallen to approximately 57,000. This represents a decrease of more than 92% from its peak.
The Artemis graph clearly shows this drop across networks such as Base, Polygon PoS, and Solana.
Lucas, on-chain payments specialist at Artemis, provided further insight. By examining the decline in transactions by category, he identified a sharp contraction in the Infrastructure & Utilities sector as the main direct cause.
Activity from services such as x402secure.com, agentlisa.ai, and pay.codenut.ai is down more than 80% from previous highs. These platforms act as critical infrastructure bridges, enabling smooth and reliable x402 payments for agents. On the other hand, demand has not yet materialized.
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“The bigger takeaway is that these recently developed tools, apps, and interfaces are showing us what’s possible and where things are going. But the demand isn’t really there yet,” Lucas says.
Despite the negative data, many analysts remain optimistic about the long-term future of agent-based economies.
Signs of a future agent economy boom
Looking further ahead, analysts are envisioning a new economic system in which AI agents become independent economic actors. These agents can act autonomously, make decisions, conduct transactions, and create value without continuous human supervision.
Analyst Stacey Muhl highlighted three key signals that support this vision.
The OpenClaw framework has over 180,000 GitHub stars, demonstrating strong community interest. It is an open-source autonomous AI assistant that can monitor wallets, automate airdrops, and participate in prediction markets. Moltbook, the first social network designed specifically for AI agents, already has nearly 2.5 million agents on board. ERC-8004, a new token standard designed for decentralized AI agents, is ready for deployment on the Ethereum mainnet, bringing this vision closer to reality.
However, from an investment perspective, the projects within the x402 ecosystem listed on CoinGecko have not yet shown significant price performance. The sector has a market capitalization of over $6.7 billion, with Chainlink (LINK) alone accounting for over $6 billion. Most of the remaining projects have market capitalizations of less than $100 million.
Due to broad market selling pressure and widespread fear, investors are missing out on the positive fundamentals of x402 and the AI agent ecosystem. If market sentiment is more favorable, these factors could give rise to new multi-billion dollar crypto projects.
