XRP is riding on the broader crypto market momentum, recording a 2.4% increase in the last 24 hours. Traders are currently focusing on bigger breakouts as XRP prices approach major resistance levels.
However, two on-chain metrics and one technical indicator suggest that the rally may not have enough fuel yet.
Hodl Waves shows that short-term and medium-term holders have been ejected
When prices rise towards breakout, one of the first questions is whether existing holders are being added to the position or are they making profits. That’s where Hodl Waves comes to mind. This metric tracks how well you hold the distribution of coins.
For XRP, two important cohorts reduce exposure. Owners for 3-6 months controlled 12.079% of the supply when the XRP price reached near $3.54, but then fell to 8.705%. Owners for a week to one month have a supply title of around $3.13, and are now at 4.964%.
This suggests that both medium and short-term participants (often the most active participants in trading gatherings) are reducing. That sales pressure can stall early stage breakouts, especially if they are not offset by strong purchases from other groups.
About Token TA and Market Updates: Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s daily crypto newsletter.
The whale exchange flow adds bearish weight
If HODL Waves retreats retail and swing traders, the next question is whether the whales are offsetting sales or participation. The whale-to-exchange flow metric tracks how much the major holders are moving to the trading platform.
Current data shows new spikes in the last whale influx seen on August 4th. The move was between $3.07 and $2.96 ahead of the XRP price adjustment. These influxes do not necessarily cause immediate drops, but historically, pullbacks are often followed within several trading sessions.
Both short-term and medium-term holders, and XRP whales, moving supply towards exchanges reduces the likelihood of sustaining in the immediate order.
XRP Price Action meets OBS divergence
The final layer of attention comes from a technical perspective. On August 6th, XRP hit $3.33. It currently trades for around $3.35, showing a slightly higher height. Note that the $3.35 level is also an immediate breakout zone where XRP prices have once been rejected.
However, the on-balance volume (OBV) of the measurements (OBV) that measure purchase and sales pressures indicates a steep height over the same period.
This obvious divergence indicates that, while prices are high, underlying purchasing pressures are weaker than before. Alongside the decline in HODL waves and the surge in whale influx, it creates a consistent picture.
The resistance after immediate resistance is $3.43, followed by $3.51, and if momentum shifts bullishly, it could run to $3.62-3.76. That means the holder may have to jump in and establish a new purchase position. Furthermore, whale influx should also be reduced. However, given current market strength, XRP prices could be integrated in the $3.25 and $3.10 zones for some time.
However, a break below $3.10 would negate the wider bullishness. And it will give you a prize by lowering the XRP price to under $2.72.
Although post-XRP is approaching a breakout, three metrics suggest that the rally may need to wait in beincrypto first.
