XRP remains under pressure amid broader crypto market pullback. The token continues to trade below the sustained downtrend line that started the year. Multiple breakout attempts failed, reinforcing bearish control in the short term.
Despite the continued decline, historical patterns suggest that this phase may precede a rebound in recovery. Similar technical setups have led to tipping points in the past. Of particular note is July 2024.
XRP could repeat history
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) extreme value indicator shows that XRP has been trading below the 1.0 threshold for an extended period of time. An MVRV ratio less than 1.0 often indicates that the asset is undervalued compared to its historical cost basis. This situation may reflect the capitulation of short-term holders.
The green bar within the MVRV model indicates that XRP is “getting lower”, suggesting a potential bottom formation. Historically, such readings have occurred after MVRV has been below 1.0 for approximately 15% of trading days. These periods often coincide with reversal phases rather than long-term declines.
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A similar configuration appeared in July 2024. Immediately following the comparable MVRV reading, XRP soared 51% within days. Although past performance is no guarantee of future results, if past trends repeat, the data suggests that XRP may be nearing a recovery phase.
On-chain metrics provide further insight into changes in investor behavior. The number of addresses holding at least 10,000 XRP is starting to stabilize after a noticeable decline. This cohort represents medium-sized whales, rather than large ones.
The recent increase follows the largest decline in such addresses since December 2020. Historically, new participation by these holders has followed accumulation by large XRP investors. Increasing confidence among smaller participants often reflects gradual improvement in confidence in price stability and potential upside for top holders.
XRP price aims to end downtrend
XRP is trading at $1.42 at the time of writing, above the key support level at $1.36. Maintaining this foundation is essential to maintaining a bullish near-term outlook. However, the asset remains constrained below the downtrend line that has refused to allow prices to rise three times this year.
Improving MVRV measurements and growth initiatives support a constructive outlook, although confirmation is still pending. A decisive move above $1.57 would be needed to confirm the breakout. Reversing this level to support will clear the $1.50 resistance and break the established downtrend structure. Such a change could pave the way for $1.91 and signal a significant extension of the recovery.
If the bullish momentum weakens, XRP may continue to consolidate within its current range. The structure will shift bearish if it breaks below $1.36. In that scenario, the downside risk would increase to $1.11, invalidating any recovery theory and potentially reinforcing selling pressure on the broader XRP price trend.
