XRP has fallen sharply since peaking on January 6th, dropping nearly 15% in just six days. Multiple support levels have already been broken and momentum remains weak. However, something unusual is happening amidst the decline in stock prices. Confident buyers are entering the market at a pace not seen since September 7th.
The major XRP price zones are still holding and demand is quietly forming under pressure. This creates a rare disconnect between price action and behavior on the blockchain.
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XRP free fall depends on one important trend line
The sell-off accelerated after XRP failed to regain its 200-day EMA from its peak on January 6th. EMA (exponential moving average) gives more weight to recent prices and is often used to determine the strength of short-term and long-term trends. If the price is below a major EMA, sellers typically remain in control.
From the peak, XRP first lost the 100-day EMA and then the 50-day EMA. It is currently hovering around the 20-day EMA, which was the last short-term trend support.
This level is important because it often distinguishes between a controlled pullback and a deeper downside move.
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A similar setup was run in early December. After XRP lost its 20-day EMA on December 4th, the price fell by about 15% over the next few days. This history explains why current levels are critical.
A hold keeps the structure alive, but a complete loss (daily closing price) risks prolonging the free fall.
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Bullish buying is the strongest since September – but from some holders
Despite the technical damage, push buying by long-term investors and confident buyers intensified.
This is reflected in HODLer Net Position Change, an indicator that tracks whether long-term wallet coin balances are increasing or decreasing. If the value is positive, the holder is accumulated. If it is negative, it is being distributed.
The strongest accumulations are from belief holders rather than the broader whale group. Changes in HODLer’s net position show that the wallet added approximately 62 million XRP on January 9th, and nearly quadrupled that amount in each of the following two days.
On January 10th and 11th, holders absorbed approximately 239 million XRP and 243 million XRP, even though the price continued to fall. This makes this the strongest two-day buy streak since September 7th.
In contrast, whales remain cautious. Only small whales holding 1 million to 10 million XRP are showing activity. Their total balance increased from 3.52 billion XRP to 3.53 billion XRP, an increase of approximately 10 million XRP. At today’s prices, this equates to a purchase price of approximately $20.5 million.
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This is not a widespread accumulation. This is a targeted defensive buy. Smaller whales are entering near the major levels, but larger players are still waiting. This imbalance explains why XRP has struggled to make a strong rebound while finding support.
Supply clusters and XRP price levels explain confidence
This belief is very consistent with XRP’s cost-based structure.
Supply clusters form where large amounts of coins were previously purchased at similar prices. These zones often act as defensive levels, as holders near break-even points tend to buy dips to protect their positions rather than sell at a loss.
Two major supply clusters are slightly below current prices. The first was between $2.00 and $2.01, with approximately 1.9 billion XRP accumulated.
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The second is located between $1.96 and $1.97, and an additional 1.8 billion XRP will be purchased. These levels explain why selling pressure has slowed despite weak momentum.
As long as these clusters continue, XRP price can form a long downside and attempt to stabilize. A recovery of the 20-day EMA near $2.04 would be the first signal that this protection is working.
On the upside, XRP needs to regain $2.21 and the January 6th peak of $2.41. A clearing of $2.41 brings $2.69 back into play and the structure becomes bullish again.
Downside risks still remain. Once we break completely below $2.01, $1.97 (the next supply cluster) appears, followed by $1.77. Notice that the on-chain supply cluster also has an active support line on the XRP price chart.
Confidence in XRP does not come from momentum or big whales. It comes from the structure. The 20-day trendline has not completely broken, and there is a tight cluster of supply directly below the price. As long as these two factors hold, push buyers will be happy to step in.
