XRP’s price recovery has shown signs of weakness in recent days as the altcoin struggles to build sustained momentum. The looming possibility of a death cross, a historically bearish technical pattern, further weighs on market sentiment.
However, maturation of investor behavior brings hope and could set the stage for XRP to repeat its July 2025 rally.
XRP holders may be able to bail out
XRP’s Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is dangerously close to forming a death cross. This occurs when the 200-day EMA crosses above the 50-day EMA, indicating growing bearish momentum in the market. Traders often interpret this as a sign of potential long-term weakness, putting the entire community on alert.
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Interestingly, the last time XRP’s EMA approached a death cross was in July 2025, just before the token soared 53%. The current structure is similar to previous patterns, suggesting that a similar outcome remains possible if market confidence returns soon.
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XRP’s on-chain data adds an interesting dimension to this story. The HODL Waves chart shows a notable increase in medium-term holders, especially 6-12 month holders. The dominance of this group increased from 24.5% to 26.2% in just two days, indicating that short-term traders are transitioning to long-term investors.
This change reflects the strength of confidence in XRP’s future performance. Such actions often support price stability by reducing selling pressure and allowing for more sustainable growth. If this trend continues, it could offset the bearish impact of the impending death cross and fuel another uptrend like we saw last year.
There are two paths for XRP price
At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $2.55, just above the key support level at $2.54. Another bullish move is needed for the altcoin to break above the $2.64 resistance level, which would confirm the upward momentum.
If the death cross materializes, XRP could face a short-term correction, possibly dropping below $2.35. Such a decline could trigger a short-term sell-off as traders react to technical setups.
Conversely, if investor maturity continues to increase, XRP could repeat the July 2025 breakout. Above $2.64, the token could be pushed towards $2.75 and possibly $2.85. This would invalidate the bearish outlook and reignite bullish sentiment.
