Bitcoin price has corrected by about 4% in the past 24 hours, rebounding above $102,100 at the time of writing. Despite a 30-day loss of nearly 9.7%, several market signals are currently lining up to suggest that a bottom for Bitcoin may be forming. And that may help BTC hit new all-time highs.
Although the structure is not yet confirmed, the clustering of the signals is stronger than in recent weeks.
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Rising channel support responds to fresh bottom signals
Bitcoin has been trading within an ascending channel since April. The lower trend line has served as reliable support since early spring, and the latest bounce off this line on November 4th has kept the channel intact. When a bottom forms inside a rising structure, the floor of the channel is usually where the strength first appears.
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At the same time, NUPL, an indicator of whether holders have unrealized gains or losses, fell to about 0.44. This is close to the lowest zone since April 8, when NUPL reached 0.42, marking the very bottom of the cycle. Bitcoin then rose from around $76,700 to more than $116,900 by late May. This is a jump of almost 53%.
Here the same combination appears again. A rebound from the channel floor and NUPL returns to the historic bottom zone. Because of this, traders believe the bottom is starting to rise.
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But just like someone looking up at a peak, Bitcoin now faces one strong ridge directly above it, a level that obstructs the view.
Cost-based heatmap reveals levels that prevent Bitcoin price from breaking out
A cost-based heatmap shows where the biggest pockets of BTC supply are. These pockets often impede upside movement, as many holders react when the price returns to entry levels. One of the strongest clusters is currently located between $109,895 and $110,192 and is backed by 117,078 BTC. There are other strong BTC clusters before that, but this zone has the darkest color, especially in the short term.
This zone also coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci level on the Bitcoin price chart, one of the strongest technical resistance points at $109,683. Until Bitcoin clears this band, the bottom cannot fully turn into a recovery. All bounces below this level may eventually fail.
A daily close above $109,683 would be the first signal of cracks in the ridge. Stronger confirmation is obtained above $112,652, which coincides with the 0.786 Fibonacci area. Beyond that, Bitcoin could target $116,435 or even the previous peak near $126,301.
Even if BTC price fails again and falls to the lower limit of the channel, the pattern will still hold. However, if Bitcoin breaks below the lower trend line, the lower setting will be invalidated. In that case, the price could fall towards $98,758 or even lower, weakening the entire bottom hypothesis.
For now, the rising channel, fresh NUPL bottom zone, and heatmap clusters are all showing the same idea. In other words, the bottom in Bitcoin price may be staring at a peak, but one major level is still hampering that outlook.
