Cryptocurrency markets are showing a meaningful recovery for the first time after a severe selloff in November, with some indicators now resembling the same situation seen around Thanksgiving in both 2022 and 2023.
Bitcoin regained the $91,000 level, ETH climbed back above $3,000, and the overall market returned to a cautious green. The rally comes as traders enter a long holiday weekend in the U.S. that has historically set the tone for December.
Market indicators turn positive after weeks of fear
According to Fear and Greed Index data, sentiment has improved from 11 last week to 22 today, but remains in “extreme fear.”
This change coincides with a steady rise in the average cryptocurrency RSI, which rose from 38.5 seven days ago to 58.3 today. The numbers show increasing strength after a period of significant oversold conditions at the beginning of the month.
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The momentum also reversed. The normalized MACD across major assets turned positive for the first time since early November.
Currently, around 82% of tracked cryptocurrencies are showing positive trend momentum. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana appear in the bullish zone of CoinMarketCap’s MACD heatmap.
Price trends support this change. Bitcoin rose 6% for the week. Ethereum rose nearly 8%. Solana is up about 8% over the same period.
Market capitalization rose 1.1% in the past 24 hours to $3.21 trillion.
The familiar post-Thanksgiving setup is here.
The current recovery mirrors a structure seen twice before. In both 2022 and 2023, the market entered Thanksgiving after a sharp drawdown, then stabilized through December.
In 2022, Bitcoin fell to nearly $16,000 following the FTX collapse. By Thanksgiving, the selling pressure was gone and the market was flat heading into Christmas.
Rather than a rally, it was a deep bearish consolidation phase.
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In 2023, Bitcoin entered Thanksgiving at $37,000 after a significant correction from September to October. Strong expectations for ETFs and improved liquidity conditions helped BTC rise to $43,600 by Christmas. It was a typical early bullish December rally.
This year, the pattern repeats familiar elements. The November crash came early and the sell-off had weakened by Thanksgiving.
Bitcoin’s 90-day taker CVD has transitioned from a sustained selling dominance to neutrality, indicating that aggressive sellers have retreated. Funding ratio and leverage data support the same interpretation.
Liquidity damage continues to shape the current economic cycle
BitMine Chairman Tom Lee said the market was “limping” after the October 10 liquidation shock.
He said market makers have been forced to shrink their balance sheets, reducing market depth across exchanges. The vulnerability lasted until November.
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However, Lee also argued that Bitcoin tends to make the biggest moves in the short term when liquidity is restored. He expects a strong rally in December if the Fed shows more flexibility.
On-chain data is consistent with this view. Nexo’s collateral statistics show that users still prefer to borrow Bitcoin rather than sell it.
BTC accounts for over 53% of all collateral on the platform. This action will limit immediate selling pressure and help stabilize the spot market. But it also adds hidden leverage that can amplify future volatility.
Possibility of going on a two-year vacation pattern
Three factors are similar to the post-Thanksgiving situation in 2022 and 2023.
Seller Exhaustion: Taker CVD moving to neutral signals the end of forced selling for the time being.
Momentum regained: MACD and RSI indicators have sharply reversed after bottoming out in early November.
Stabilizing liquidity: Market makers remain hurt, but volatility has subsided and ETF outflows have slowed.
If this pattern continues, December could produce one of two outcomes based on the past two years.
Sponsored Sponsored If liquidity remains thin, the market will consolidate sideways like in 2022.
If the macro environment turns supportive, we will see a short and sharp rally like in 2023.
The deciding factor will probably be the Fed’s behavior in early December and the movement of Bitcoin ETF flows. Thin liquidity means that even moderate inflows can cause prices to fluctuate rapidly.
December could bring big moves in either direction.
The market is in a transition period rather than a clear trend. Although sentiment remains very concerning, price and momentum indicators are pointing to a recovery.
Bitcoin’s position above $91,000 suggests that buyers are prepared to defend key levels, but order book depth remains weak.
With selling pressure waning and technical momentum building, the environment now resembles the post-Thanksgiving environment that characterized the past two year-end cycles.
If this pattern holds, December will not be flat. As the liquidity situation changes, a decisive move is likely.
However, the direction will depend more on macro signals and ETF demand in the coming weeks than on the crypto story.
