Ethereum price has increased by 6.7% in the past 24 hours and is trading around $3,320. This move follows the breakout structure confirmed on December 3rd that still points to $3,710.
But currently the signals are mixed, suggesting the climb could take longer.
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Breakout structure holds as bullish crossover approaches
Ethereum price continues to hover within the same inverted head-and-shoulders breakout setup that formed in late November. This move remained in effect after December 3rd as the right shoulder support at $2,710 remained in place. The structure will only weaken if ETH falls below that level.
The current key trigger is the bullish crossover forming between the 20-period EMA (exponential moving average) and the 50-period EMA. The EMA (exponential moving average) tracks prices by giving extra weight to recent candlesticks.
A bullish crossover usually suggests that buyers are gaining momentum and the momentum is likely to continue in the same direction. This trigger could push ETH price towards its expected target of $3,710.
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However, this crossover will only form if the seller does not intervene. One on-chain indicator shows why caution remains.
Rising paper profits create a profit-taking window
Ethereum’s Net Unrealized Gain/Loss (NUPL) measures the “paper profits” held by all ETH wallets. As NUPL rises, more holders have a reason to sell as they are saddled with larger unrealized gains.
ETH’s NUPL has now risen to 0.296, pushing it into the zone of optimism and fear. This was the highest level since early November.
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The last time NUPL touched a similar level was on December 3rd, but ETH fell by around 5.2% within two days as holders booked profits.
Similar settings are currently displayed. While ETH is near resistance, profitability is rising again. This increases the likelihood that some holders will sell before the bullish crossover completes. If that happens, the crossover may fail and momentum may stall even though the breakout structure is still intact. This is the reason for the long waiting time.
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Key Ethereum Price Levels: What Paves the Way to $3,710 and What Breaks It
If the bullish crossover completes and NUPL pressure remains limited, there is a clear upward path for Ethereum price.
A 12-hour close above $3,390 is the first signal. The next resistance level is located at $3,570. Clearing $3,570 unlocks a full move towards $3,710, which is a 20% prediction from the breakout point.
Conversely, if selling increases, the structure will weaken. ETH remains valid above $2,710, but below $2,610 the setting is invalidated, indicating a deeper decline.
For now, ETH is positioned between two camps. That is, a bullish crossover that could push it towards $3,710 and a rise in paper gains that could slow the move. The next few sessions will decide who will take the lead.
