HBAR doesn’t have time. The token has fallen nearly 2% in the past 24 hours and is down nearly 10% this week. Along the way, HBAR price has broken through several short-term support levels and is currently hovering around $0.12.
This level is important. HBAR is barely 1% above the breakdown zone that could push the price towards $0.10. This move would represent a 12-13% decline from current levels. However, one bullish signal still holds the structure in place. Failure could accelerate the decline.
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Withdrawal of large sums of money weakens the system
The main source of pressure is the actions of large HBAR holders.
This can be seen through Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks whether large sums of money are moving in and out of an asset by combining price movements and trading volume. If CMF is above zero, large buyers are active. Distribution occurs when the value is below zero.
In the case of HBAR, CMF is rapidly deteriorating. Since December 7th, CMF has fallen by more than 400%, falling significantly into negative territory. Even with the initial pullback, CMF remained positive, meaning buyers absorbed the selling pressure. This time, that support is gone.
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There is also a clear bearish divergence. From October 10th to December 14th, HBAR price formed higher lows, while CMF formed lower lows. This indicates that the recent price stability is not backed by strong demand from large companies.
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Simply put, prices tried to hold up while the big bucks quietly exited. This imbalance makes the HBAR price vulnerable.
One bullish signal still holds the floor
Despite the weak big money picture, one momentum indicator still shows bullish signs.
That indicator is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures the strength and speed of recent price movements. This helps identify when selling pressure dries up. A number close to 30 usually indicates an oversold situation.
On the daily chart of HBAR, the RSI is forming a bullish divergence. From November 21st to December 14th, HBAR price made lower lows and RSI made lower lows. This is a classic bullish divergence and often appears as a sign of a trend reversal.
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PS HBAR price is in a clear downward trend, dropping more than 48% in less than 3 months.
This shows that sellers are still pushing prices down, but the pressure is getting weaker each time. The decline continues, but the seller-driven momentum behind it is waning. At this point, this RSI divergence is the only bullish strategy left for HBAR.
Will HBAR prices collapse or will the tide turn?
Price action defines the final outcome. HBAR is trading below the downtrend line that has capped any gains in recent weeks. At the same time, the price is sitting at trend-based Fibonacci support around $0.12. This line serves as the base for the descending triangle pattern, completed by the descending trend line.
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This zone is your last line of defense.
If there is a decisive break below $0.12, the next major support lies around $0.10. This move would confirm the 12%-13% breakdown and extend the bearish trend.
To stabilize, HBAR price needs to regain $0.13. This level coincides with an important Fibonacci retracement zone and could be a signal for buyers to pull back.
A stronger shift would only push it above $0.13. The price will then move back above the downtrend line and reset the structure from bearish to neutral.
