XRP continues to be under pressure after extending its downtrend and falling well below the $2.00 level. Despite optimism among some investors, the pullback dampened short-term momentum.
That confidence has not yet translated into strong network activity, limiting XRP’s ability to stage a meaningful price recovery.
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XRP holders are doing their part
HODL Waves data shows growing confidence among long-term XRP holders. Since the beginning of the month, the supply share of wallets holding XRP for 1-2 years has increased by 3%. This cohort currently controls approximately 11% of the XRP in circulation.
This change reflects the growth of medium-term holders into long-term holders. Such behavior often shows confidence during periods of price weakness. Rather than reacting to short-term price fluctuations, these investors appear willing to endure volatility in hopes of a future recovery.
But it also shows that medium-term holders are behind the scenes. Therefore, they will be forced to hold on to their XRP tokens.
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Nevertheless, macro indicators suggest that challenges persist. The network value to transaction ratio shows an increase in the measured values. Rising NVT levels often suggest that valuations are outpacing on-chain utility.
The index recently reached a three-month high, indicating possible overheating. XRP trading activity has not kept pace with market expectations. This imbalance undermines any recovery attempts, as price increases lack the support of network usage or sustained demand.
XRP price may not crash
XRP is trading around $1.86 at the time of writing, well below the $2.00 drop it suffered last week. The decline followed a failed attempt to break out of a month-long downward trend earlier this month. Momentum remains fragile at present.
The token holds above the previously tested $1.85 support level. If selling pressure subsides, XRP could consolidate below $1.94. However, deteriorating sentiment could push the price towards $1.79, widening short-term losses.
The recovery scenario hinges on improved network activity and broader market stability. A breakout of $1.94 would be the first step towards regaining $2.00. A switch to support at $2.02 could push XRP towards $2.20, invalidating the bearish trend.
