XRP has fallen about 1.6% in the past 24 hours. On the weekly chart, it remains one of the weaker large-cap stocks, sitting around 16% below last month’s levels. Most of the price movements have occurred near the bottom of the descending triangle pattern, and this structure often leads to continued movements.
While this does not yet confirm a breakdown, three market signals line up that should make traders cautious heading into the final days of 2025.
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Both individual holders and long-term holders are making similar moves.
XRP remains inside the descending triangle and is trading sideways near the lower trendline. From December 18th to December 27th, prices were in an upward trend, while the Money Flow Index (MFI) had the opposite movement during the same period.
MFIs track funds flowing into and out of their assets. MFI lows are falling while prices are rising, suggesting that retailers are selling on any pullback rather than accumulating.
This pressure causes XRP price to remain pinned to the lower bound of the pattern rather than testing the upper line.
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The concerns become even more pronounced when we look at long-term holders.
According to HODL Waves, which visualizes how much supply is held by age group, wallets holding two to three years worth of XRP fell from 14.26% of the supply on November 26th to about 5.66% on December 26th.
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These are long-term convicts, and their sale would strip the market of its constituency. Retail weakness is normal. There is no long-term weakness at the same time.
This creates a setup where both short-term and long-term behavior lean in the same direction, i.e. outward from XRP.
Capital flows indicate a decline in demand
If retail and long-term confidence is weakening, the next checkpoint is the third key sign: capital flows.
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Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) also offers no relief. CMF tracks buying and selling pressure based on volume and price movements. Large-scale money flow indicators remain negative for XRP, sliding along the downward support trend line.
Simply put, even if prices are flat, the large capital flowing into the asset is thinning, and the market is tilted towards supply outstripping demand. With no pickup yet in CMF, the market loses another potential safety net.
This is why the XRP price is flattening out instead of rebounding.
XRP price level will determine whether a breakdown actually occurs
For now, XRP is trapped between $1.90 and $1.81. It lost the $1.90 level on December 22nd and has not recovered since. A return to $1.90 and then a push above $1.99 would be the first sign of strength.
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It would also mark a move above the triangle’s upper boundary, giving the bulls something to work on.
However, the bear case is clearer than the bull case at this point.
If $1.81 breaks out, XRP could break out of the descending triangle pattern, which would constitute a confirmed breakdown. This loss could create room for the structure to completely collapse at $1.68, or even towards $1.52 if the sell-off accelerates.
This is not clear yet, but the market has not shown any contrary signals yet. As long as retail sales, long-term distribution, and weakening capital inflows are consistent, XRP price should fight to maintain its range.
