XRP is trading around $1.86, down about 2% in the past 24 hours and almost 15% in a month. XRP price is still trapped within a bearish channel, with a 41% collapse risk if it breaks below key levels.
What makes this setup unusual is that multiple groups of buyers are ultimately involved. While long-term holders are buying again and short-term holders are buying more, one group is not convinced. This collision explains why the chart is still bearishly tilted.
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Long-term holders return while bearish channel remains
XRP price has been trading within a descending channel since early October. All rallies failed near the upper trend line. This pattern predicts a potential decline of 41% from the breakdown point. And while XRP is currently trading close to the upper trend line, some on-chain support appears to be emerging.
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Long-term holders have finally changed their behavior, as shown by Hodler’s net position change indicator.
After almost three consecutive weeks of net selling, the trend reversed in December. From December 3rd to December 26th, the XRP Hodler indicator saw daily negative net position changes. The situation changed on December 27th, when long-term holders added 9.03 million XRP. The next sharp increase occurred on December 29th, when acquisition amount reached 15.9 million XRP. Buying surged about 76% in 48 hours.
This level of buying allowed XRP to remain near the upper trend line of the descending channel, but failed to break out of the channel to the upside.
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Short-term buyers join in, but whales start selling again
As seen from the HODL Waves indicator, short-term holders (1-3 months) expanded from 9.58% of supply on November 29th to 12.32% on December 29th. HODL Waves metrics typically separate cohorts by age.
This group typically drives rapid upmarkets, but is also the first to exit during volatility. Their buying is a double-edged sword. That helps limit busts, but also creates exit pressure if the rally remains weak.
Whales are moving in the opposite direction, perhaps seeing short-term holders gain significantly amidst a falling price pattern.
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The 100 million to 1 billion XRP cohort saw its holdings decrease from 8.23 billion to 8.13 billion on December 28, with a decrease of 100 million XRP and approximately $186 million sold.
The 1-10 million XRP cohort decreased from 3.58 billion to 3.55 billion XRP, a decrease of 30 million XRP, which equates to approximately $55 million in sell-side pressure.
The exit of the whale creates friction against the inflow of the two-layer holder. This thwarts any attempt at a clean breakout and explains why the price keeps returning to the midrange without challenging resistance. If short-term holders sell on a pullback, the downside could accelerate as whales trim their positions.
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XRP price level that determines the next leg
The market is at a crossroads. XRP price remains within the channel. The pair needs to sustain above $1.79 to avoid an early break. If long-term holders continue to buy and sustain above that level, the price could head towards $1.98. A daily close above $1.98 would neutralize the bearish structure and pave the way for bullish momentum to return to $2.28.
But the danger is clear.
If $1.79 fails, the next XRP price supports will be $1.64 and $1.48. A loss of $1.48 would break the channel, exposing us to a 41% risk towards $1.27 and below.
At the moment, the buying by a wide range of holders has not reversed the structure. It only delayed the collapse. In order to change the story, the whale needs to come back. Until then, any rebound within the channel is accompanied by exit pressure.
