Cardano (ADA) continues to accumulate in smart money wallets despite the drop in crypto prices over the past two months.
In contrast, smaller retail wallets have been offloading assets over the past three weeks. This difference in investor behavior could signal a potential tipping point for Cardano.
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ADA whale accumulation contrasts with retail sales pressure
ADA, like other markets, is subject to significant fluctuations. In the past two months alone, altcoins have fallen by around 19%. After an initial rally in January 2026, prices reversed sharply, erasing much of the year-to-date progress.
At the time of writing, ADA was trading at $0.35, up just over 2% in the past 24 hours, according to data from BeInCrypto Markets. The gradual recovery is consistent with a broader market recovery.
Despite the price slump, on-chain data shows sustained accumulation by large holders. Blockchain analytics firm Santiment has revealed that large Cardano holders with balances of 100,000 to 100 million tokens have accumulated 454.7 million ADA in the past two months.
Whale’s recent accumulation of $161.42 million highlights continued confidence among market participants.
A closer analysis of the wallet data reveals a consistent increase in the exposure of whale addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA.
On the other hand, demand for wallets holding 1 million to 10 million ADA and wallets holding 100,000 to 1 million ADA temporarily slowed, but accumulation resumed in January 2026.
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Meanwhile, individual investors continue to sell. Small holders of 100 ADA or less offloaded 22,000 ADA (equivalent to approximately $7,810) in the past three weeks.
Santiment observed that the accumulation of whales due to retail capitulation indicates the possibility of recovery once the market stabilizes.
“When whales are added and retail prices fall, this is historically the ideal setup for an eventual rebound when the crypto market begins to stabilize,” the post reads.
Meanwhile, fundamental hiring remains strong. The number of ADA holders rose to 3.228 million from 3.17 million in November, according to AdaStat. This 50,000 wallet increase shows steady interest in the Cardano ecosystem.
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Cardano’s DeFi ecosystem has also shown stability. According to DefiLlama, the total value locked (TVL) of DeFi protocols was $161.87 million, an increase of 1.53% compared to the past. 24 hours.
TVL has held close to 460 million ADA since October, showing it has capital left even if prices fall.
ADA Technology Outlook: What’s Next for Prices?
The key question now is whether increased adoptions and sustained whale accumulation will lead to meaningful price increases.
From a technical perspective, some analysts are seeing early signs of a potential trend reversal. In a recent post on X, one analyst noted that ADA is consolidating within its historical demand zone, where clear accumulation is occurring.
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According to analysts, a repeated reaction from this level increases the likelihood of a bullish reversal. Based on this setup, the analyst has outlined three upside targets: $0.6386, $0.9358, and $1.3285.
“As long as the price remains above the support zone, risks remain under control,” the analyst added.
However, the bullish case faces challenges in the short term. Another analyst noted that ADA is still trading below key resistance levels, with the chart showing two notable sell walls overhead.
A sell wall forms when a large cluster of sell orders is placed at a certain price level, creating resistance that can limit upward movement. Until there is enough buying pressure to absorb this supply, price increases may stall or reverse.
As a result, while accumulating data and adoption indicators support a positive long-term outlook, ADA may need to clear these resistance zones before a sustained recovery materializes.
