XRP enters February under pressure. The token has fallen nearly 7% in the past 24 hours and about 5% in the last month, reflecting growing weakness in the overall market. Historically, February has been a difficult month for XRP price. According to the data, the median return in February was -8.12%, with an average decline of -5%. In 2025, the token fell by almost 29% during the same period.
This year, technical and on-chain signals suggest similar risks are rising. At the same time, selective accumulation and early momentum indicators suggest that recovery is still possible. Here’s what the data shows:
Reasons why prices were expected to fall
XRP continues to trade within a long-term descending channel on the 2-day chart. A descending channel is a bearish structure in which prices lower highs and lower lows within parallel trend lines.
Since mid-2025, this pattern has continued to suppress rallies and prices have steadily declined. As we approach a historically weak February, XRP is nearing the lower end of the channel, increasing downside risk.
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Vasily Shilov, Swapspace’s chief business development officer, said seasonal patterns are still important, but are no longer decisive in and of themselves.
He explained that “ETF flows are now a much more reliable directional driver.”
“If macro clarity does not emerge, a range move is most likely,” he added.
However, this technical weakness did not appear out of nowhere.
From October 2nd to January 5th, XRP formed lower highs in price, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed higher highs. RSI measures momentum and indicates whether buying or selling pressure is building.
This discrepancy is called a hidden bearish divergence. This often indicates that the strength of the upside has weakened before a correction begins. The signs flashed in early January, and the stock has since fallen nearly 30%.
A new system is now being formed.
From October 10th to January 29th, XRP price recorded lower lows (active at time of writing), but the RSI is trying to form higher lows. This creates the basis for a bullish divergence and could signal trend exhaustion.
To check this signal:
The next two-day XRP price candlestick should be above $1.71, confirming that the lower low RSI should be above 32.83.
If both conditions are met, the downside momentum will weaken and the probability of a rebound will increase. If they fail, the bearish channel will remain in control.
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Money flows and whale activity show mixed signals
Although XRP prices are trending lower, capital flow data paints a more mixed picture.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks the buying pressure of institutional investors and large wallets, rose from January 5 to January 25, despite the decline in prices. This forms a bullish divergence.
This suggests that perhaps large institutional investors were quietly accumulating XRP during the decline.
ETF flow data supports this trend. ETF flows for the entire month of January remain net negative due to large outflows on January 21st, but net inflows have steadily improved towards the end of the month. Recent green bars indicate renewed interest from institutional channels.
Shailov said ETF volatility in January reflected broader macro caution rather than structural weakness in XRP demand.
He explained that while macro pressures are pushing investors towards safer assets such as gold and silver, the XRP Spot ETF has still attracted more than $1.3 billion in total inflows since its launch, with less than a month of net redemptions recorded.
“The scale and persistence of the inflows suggest that a reversal of the trend is unlikely at this time,” he said.
However, this optimism is called into question by currency data.
XRP exchange flow balance has risen sharply since January 17th, moving from -7.64 million to +3.78 million. What’s even more interesting is the pattern.
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Three consecutive inflow peaks appeared on January 25th, 27th, and 29th. Similar structures formed earlier this month on January 4th, 8th, and 13th. Since then, XRP has fallen from $2.10 to $1.73, a decline of about 18%. So despite the ETF’s optimism, the current inflow structure is a clear risk signal.
Shailov added that ETF demand alone is still not enough to completely isolate XRP from broader market forces. He said that based on SwapSpace trading data, XRP’s short-term movement continues to track Bitcoin trends and macro risk sentiment when ETF flows become volatile.
“BTC direction, macro stress, and derivatives positioning are likely to drive risk appetite in the short term,” he said.
XRP whale presents an interesting perspective
Whale behavior adds a new layer.
Since the beginning of the price correction in early January, wallets with over 1 billion XRP have been steadily accumulating. Their holdings increased from 23.35 billion XRP to 23.49 billion XRP, indicating significant capital deployment during the economic downturn.
Unlike last year, when the big whales waited until late February to make purchases, they are building positions early this cycle. This reduces the likelihood of a big crash, but does not eliminate short-term downside risk.
Shilov cautioned that the accumulation of large shareholders must be considered in context. He said the current pattern resembles tactical positioning more than a firm belief.
“Stable accumulation must continue along with stable ETF inflows,” he said.
“Otherwise, buying could quickly dry up if macro pressures increase.”
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The signals are contradictory, explaining that the 5% drop in January is not as aggressive as the nearly 15% drop in December 2025.
Key support levels, downside risks and XRP price recovery scenarios
XRP’s price structure has made the critical levels clear. The first zone that XRP must adhere to is $1.71 to $1.69. A two-day close below this area would weaken the channel support and create room for a larger decline.
If this happens, the next major support will be located around $1.46. A sustained move below $1.46 could accelerate the selling and send XRP further down toward $1.24.
This scenario becomes even more likely if currency inflows continue to rise and ETF demand does not strengthen.
On the positive side, recovery is on one level. XRP should regain $1.97 on a two-day closing basis. This represents a break above short-term resistance and could signal that buyers are regaining control. This XRP level was highlighted by BeInCrypto analysts yesterday.
A confirmed move above $1.97 could pave the way to $2.41, which aligns with the key Fibonacci and channel resistance levels.
Looking ahead, Shilov said the strongest support for a bullish breakout would be a return to sustained ETF inflows similar to the start of November.
“We believe that weekly inflows of $80 million to $200 million would create strong momentum above $2.10,” he said.
He also suggested possible failure levels that are fully consistent with our analysis.
“Further deterioration in the global geopolitical or macro situation could further exacerbate the decline in XRP and push the asset below $1.70,” he emphasized.
The battle currently revolves around the support at $1.69 and resistance at $1.97. Whichever one breaks first will likely determine the direction of XRP price for the rest of February.
