Hedera’s price has fallen sharply in recent trading, registering a 15% decline and pushing down HBAR. Although this move appears bearish at first glance, on-chain and technical indicators suggest a different story.
Investor behavior indicates accumulation rather than panic selling. This shift positions the decline as a potential opportunity rather than a collapse.
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Mr. Hedera’s pursuit of Bitcoin was a problem.
HBAR’s recent weakness is a good reflection of Bitcoin’s price movement. The altcoin has a strong correlation with BTC of 0.98. This high correlation makes HBAR highly sensitive to broader market movements. Once Bitcoin fell below $80,000, HBAR followed suit almost immediately.
This relationship explains the sudden drop below $0.100. This move wasn’t about Hedera’s fundamentals, but about broader market pressures.
During Bitcoin sharp declines, highly correlated assets often exhibit exaggerated movements. This dynamic was evident in HBAR’s recent slides.
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HBAR holders doubled
Despite the price weakness, HBAR holders are resisting the bearish outlook. The Chaikin Money Flow indicator shows significant divergence. Over the past four days, CMF has made new highs and HBAR price has made new lows. This pattern shows that inflows are increasing despite falling prices.
Bullish divergences often precede reversals. This suggests investors are raising money while prices are subdued.
Although HBAR does not yet reflect this demand, capital inflows are increasing behind the scenes. This disconnect increases the likelihood of a rebound once selling pressure eases.
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The relative strength index provides further support for the bullish setup. HBAR’s RSI is below the 30.0 threshold and the asset is firmly in oversold territory. Oversold conditions often indicate selling fatigue rather than sustained weakness.
Historically, sell orders slow down for assets trading at these levels. Lower prices tend to attract buyers looking for a value entry. For HBARs, this environment increases the likelihood of stabilization and recovery, especially when combined with increased inflows.
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HBAR Price Eyes Breakout
HBAR price is trading around $0.091 at the time of writing. The altcoin has been trading in a downward expanding wedge for about a month. This structure formed after a breakout attempt in mid-January failed. Such patterns are often resolved with strong directional movements.
If the breakout from the wedge is confirmed, we expect a 43% rally towards $0.146. This target reflects the broader bullish macro scenario. In the short term, HBAR needs to recover $0.103 first. A move towards $0.114 would confirm the early breakout momentum and validate the bullish signal.
Downside risks remain if the situation worsens further. If Bitcoin continues to fall, the positive indicators could be reversed. If HBAR loses the support at $0.091, the price could slide towards $0.084. Such a move would invalidate the bullish thesis and delay any recovery attempts.
