Ripple enters 2026 with new permissions in the UK and EU.
In January, Ripple announced that it had received permission from the UK Financial Conduct Authority for an electronic money institution (EMI) license and crypto asset registration.
On February 2, the company announced that it had received full EMI approval in Luxembourg.
But what does that actually mean for XRP investors?
Ripple’s own standardized XRPL “snapshot” table will effectively stop in Q1 2025 (when Ripple announced it will retire its current form of XRP market report), so any 2026 “utility” narrative should be tested against benchmarks like fresher third-party research and live XRPL dashboards, most recently Messari’s Q3 2025 Network Review, rather than year-over-year comparisons.
Important points
Ripple’s licensing progress is an enterprise-level distribution enabler, and observable translation to XRPL activity is still required before “utility” becomes an assertion of XRP demand. With Ripple discontinuing its quarterly XRP market report tables after Q1 2025, more up-to-date XRPL checkpoints will come from third-party research such as Messari’s Q3 2025 snapshot. According to this snapshot, average daily transactions increased 8.9% (from 1.6 million to 1.6 million) quarter-on-quarter. 1.8 million), and the total number of new addresses increased 46.3% from the previous quarter to 447,200. The modernization of cross-border payments continues to lag at a system level, with the BIS saying it is behind the pace of its end-2027 target and the FSB saying global results have not translated into tangible improvements. XRP’s 2026 tape could remain sensitive to liquidity conditions after the Fed kept its key interest rate unchanged at around 3.6% in January.
who is this for
Long-term holders who need a checklist to differentiate between Ripple distribution and XRPL usage. Swing traders who trade legal or licensed headlines but require on-chain confirmation gates. Institutional investors and Treasury readers who track payment rails, licenses, and payment paths.
Highlights of this quarter
Comparison of XRPL activity trends and last disclosed benchmarks (transactions, new wallets, fees spent, DEX volumes). Operational readiness signals, including whether validators and operators remain up to date with core node releases such as Ripple 3.0.0. Evidence of regulation-to-usage conversion with a funnel from licensing to onboarding to routing selection to XRPL payments. The factors behind macro payments include cost, speed, and access targets. BIS and FSB progressive language.
What is XRPL (and what does “utility” really mean?)
XRPL is a public ledger with its own node software lifecycle. Network maintenance can be critical to both uptime and the reliability of the “enterprise grade” description. According to XRPL.org, version 3.0.0 of rippled was released on December 9, 2025.
The site called on server operators to upgrade “as soon as possible.” In the investor paper, “utility” requires a definition that transcends headline cycles.
Ripple’s market report provides a monitoring template by exposing four buckets (transactions, new wallets, XRP burn-in fees, and DEX volumes) that can be tracked as a group.
Ripple and XRPL (who does what) and why licenses don’t match token demand
Ripple’s 2026 regulatory update is in the corporate tier.
Ripple announced on January 9, 2026 that it received UK FCA permission covering EMI license and crypto asset registration.
Ripple also announced that it received preliminary EMI approval in Luxembourg on January 14, 2026.
Subsequently, on February 2, 2026, the company announced that it had received full EMI approval in Luxembourg.
A forward-looking framework treats these permissions as the first step in a conversion funnel that can be audited over time.
Payment businesses can route value in ways that do not require ledger settlement with XRP, so routing choices can disrupt the funnel.
An investable question in 2026 is whether license-driven distribution will expand the use of XRPL in specific traceable on-chain buckets.
2026 Demand Drivers: Payments Realities, Liquidity Regime, and Headline Beta
In the macro payment layer, the baseline is still undergoing gradual reforms rather than rapid gradual changes.
The Financial Stability Board’s 2025 Consolidated Progress Report said efforts had not led to “tangible improvements” globally and costs remained “high.”
The Bank for International Settlements said in a December 2025 preliminary report that its cross-border payments target for the end of 2027 is off pace.
He also said the improvement had been “gradual.”
Stablecoins remain a competing payments story with its own constraints.
The IMF said stablecoins could improve payments and global finance, but warned of risks such as currency substitution and less control over capital flows.
In the market, liquidity conditions may still dominate the medium-term performance of high-beta assets. The Federal Reserve kept its key policy interest rate unchanged at approximately 3.6% in January.
For XRP, the readthrough in 2026 is mechanical.
As interest rate and volatility conditions tighten, headline-driven rallies may face higher hurdles to sustain without on-chain confirmation.
The heading of the XRPL institutional roadmap can influence the flow of the story.
“Utilities drive prices” claims, such as Ripple’s institutional XRPL roadmap and upgraded XRPL proposals for institutional DeFi, still require ledger-level confirmation.
What to Track in 2026: Checking the XRPL Metrics Dashboard and Narrative to Metrics
Ripple’s last disclosed quarterly ratio provides a benchmark for what the “cooling down” looks like after the spike.
In Messari’s State of XRP Ledger Q3 2025 report, the company said several key network metrics increased quarter-over-quarter, including average daily transactions increasing from 1.6 million to 1.8 million.
It also reported quarter-over-quarter declines in transaction fee burn (XRP) and DEX activity, providing a more recent “cooling versus re-acceleration” framework for monitoring in 2026.
metrics dashboard
Metric Q2 2025Q3 2025QoQ Changes How to Use in Monitoring 2026 Average Daily Transactions 1.601.8M + 8.9% Look for sustained throughput improvements over multiple quarters, not isolated bursts tied to hype cycles. Average daily active sender addresses 21,90025,300 + 15.4% While remembering aggregate destination tags, we can compress the number of “addresses” for exchanges/custodians to use as participating proxies. New Addresses (Quarterly Total) – 447,200 + 46.3% Tracks whether licensing/onboarding narratives match net new account growth, not just recycled activity. XRP burned in trading fees (Quarterly Total, XRP)308,700174,200-43.6% Used as a signal for activity costs (and “block space demand”) DEX Trading Volume (Daily Average, CLOB Issue Currency Trading Volume, USD)$8.2M$7.9M-4% Monitor whether liquidity increases in parallel with throughput (A healthier pattern than an isolated volume spike). DEX Volume (Daily Average, AMM Volume, USD)$2.1M$1.7M-17% Tracks AMM participation separately from CLOB. Incentives, as each may behave differently depending on market structure and structure.
Messari reported that the total number of new addresses in Q3 2025 increased 46.3% quarter-on-quarter to 447,200, with average daily transactions increasing from 1.6 million to 1.8 million.
This move provides a more up-to-date onboarding and throughput reference point in the “utility” discussion heading into 2026 than previous quarterly pair comparisons.
Ripple also said it will retire the XRP Market Report “in its current form” starting in the second quarter of 2025. This means that previous on-chain tables need to be treated as closed historical series rather than live quarterly benchmarks.
This change provides a primary check on the continuity of the methodology. Do not join Ripple’s legacy tables with third-party series without explicitly normalizing the definition and data source.
These details can be found in Ripple’s Q1 2025 XRP Market Report and Messari’s Q3 2025 XRPL Report.
Mapping narratives and metrics (audit trail)
“Usage unlocked by license” should appear as a trend across multiple metrics, including transactions, fees spent, and even new wallets if participants grow through onboarding. “XRPL DeFi liquidity is increasing” should appear on DEX volumes alongside activity metrics using the same reporting methodology notes.
Bull, base and bear case
Bullish Signpost: Licensing tailwinds coincide with sustained multi-quarter re-acceleration in transactions, new wallets, fees spent, and overall DEX volume.
The license leg can be observed through Ripple’s UK and Luxembourg updates, and the on-chain leg can be observed through the market report metrics framework.
Basic signpost: Ripple expands the distribution of regulated targets, while XRPL activity stabilizes near the post-spike range.
XRP trades as a liquidity and headline sensitive asset in the context of the Fed’s interest rate moratorium.
A bearish signpost: Under the BIS and FSB’s progress, cross-border payments modernization is lagging.
Stablecoins have received attention for payments within the IMF’s risk framework, and XRPL activity has failed to re-accelerate under tighter risk appetite.
Red flags and invalidations (what breaks the paper)
Methodological discontinuities: Ripple notes that it has updated its on-chain data sources, which “may result in slight differences” that could invalidate simple quarterly comparisons. Narrative-only gathering: License or legal headings that do not match XRPL follow-through of multi-metrics across transactions, wallets, consumption fees, and DEX volumes. Macro discrepancy: insistence on payment implementation ignoring BIS and FSB progress. Exaggerating language risks. A short-term shift from infrastructure planning to global cost and speed outcomes.
Common Myths and Action Checklist for Monitoring in 2026
Myth: “Ripple license means demand for XRP.”
Ripple’s permission describes what the company can do in a regulated market, and asserting token demand requires a second step that can be observed on XRPL via activity metrics.
Myth: “Ripple equals XRPL.”
XRPL has its own operating rhythm, and the Ripple 3.0.0 upgrade guidance on XRPL.org reminds us that network reliability is on its own trajectory.
Behavioral checklists and routines
Weekly: Logs risk appetite input related to the Fed’s interest rate regime, as the Associated Press said the policy rate was unchanged at about 3.6% as of late January. Monthly: Update your XRPL dashboard using Ripple’s four buckets as a consistent template and flag methodology notes before comparing trends. Quarterly: Rerun the license-to-ledger funnel, mapping Ripple’s jurisdictional authority to observable routing and activity outcomes, and leaving conclusions conditional. Until the on-chain leg confirms.
For 2026, the XRP-related story boils down to whether regulated distribution turns into sustained XRPL usage.
The test will take place under a payments system that the world body says is still slow to change.
