Solana remains under continued pressure after a long decline that began long before the recent market downturn intensified. Falling prices gradually eroded confidence, prompting influential investors to adjust their positions.
Historical patterns now point to increased downside risks. While oversold signals are emerging, broader data still reflects a cautious outlook on SOL.
Sponsored Sponsored
Solana holders begin to withdraw
Solana’s HODLer net position change is starting to trend downward. A receding green bar indicates that long-term holders are slowing in their accumulation. This cohort typically plays a stabilizing role during correction. Reduced purchasing activity suggests weakening confidence rather than active distribution at current price levels.
While this data does not confirm active selling, it does highlight waning demand from influential investors. Reduced accumulation often limits recovery attempts during oversold stages. Without fresh buying pressure, SOL may struggle to sustain the rebound, especially if broader market conditions remain weak.
Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.
HODL Waves provides further insight into investor behavior. Wallets that accumulated SOL between 1 and 3 months ago decreased by 5%. On the other hand, the percentage of carriers aged 3 to 6 months increased by 4.5%. This change indicates that behind-the-scenes investors are continuing to hold stocks despite unrealized losses.
Resilience remains, but perseverance may not be limitless. Historically, prolonged drawdowns test holders’ confidence. If Solana’s price falls further, these cohorts may begin distributing. Such action would add downside pressure and strengthen the general macro bearish trend.
Sponsored Sponsored
SOL price may fall further
Solana is trading near $103, above the key support at $100. This level corresponds to a 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Maintaining this zone is important for short-term stability. However, the failure of the rally created downside risk towards $95, which corresponds to the 178.6% Fibonacci level.
Momentum indicators reflect oversold conditions. The money flow index is nearing the oversold threshold. Historically, each break below this level has triggered a short-term rebound. These recoveries often failed to reverse broader trends, leading to short-term recoveries followed by renewed declines.
In the short term, Solana could defend $100 or bounce back toward the $107 resistance. A technical pullback remains possible due to oversold conditions. However, macro signals continue to support downside risks. Barring stronger demand, it looks like SOL could fall back below $100.
The bearish outlook will be invalidated if Solana converts to support at $107. If the price continues to rise, it could pave the way to $118. Securing that level will require steady capital inflows and renewed investor confidence. Without capital returning to SOL, any attempts at upside are likely to remain limited.
