Solana price remains under significant pressure in early February, with the token down nearly 30% over the past 30 days and trading within a weakening downward channel. Prices continue to rise toward the lower end of this structure as long-term confidence wanes.
At the same time, net staking activity has collapsed, currency buying has slowed, and short-term traders are building positions again. Taken together, these signals suggest that technical support is weakening while more SOL is becoming available for potential sales.
Sponsored Sponsored
Staking collapse meets downturn in channel collapse risk
Solana’s recent weaknesses have been further reinforced by a sharp decline in staking activity. The Solana Staking Difference Metric tracks the weekly net change in SOL locked into native staking accounts. Positive values indicate new staking, negative values indicate net unstaking.
In late November, long-term conviction was strong. For the week ending November 24, staking accounts entered a major accumulation phase with net inflows of over SOL 6.34 million.
That trend has now completely reversed. By mid-January, weekly staking flows turned negative. For the week ending January 19, net unstaking was approximately -449,819 SOL. By February 2nd, this had worsened to -1,155,788 SOL, increasing unstaking by approximately 150% within two weeks.
Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.
This means that an increasing amount of SOL is being released from staking and returned to liquid circulation. As soon as these tokens are unstaken, they can be moved to exchanges and sold, increasing downside risk.
This collapse is occurring at a time when price is trading near the bottom of a descending channel, with a 30% collapse potential.
Sponsored Sponsored
SOL is hovering around $96, with a combination of technical weakness and increased liquid supply creating a dangerous situation. As sales accelerate, channel support may become unsustainable.
Currency buying slows due to increased exposure by speculators
The decline in staking activity is now reflected in currency flows. Exchange Net Position Change tracks the amount of SOL entering and exiting exchanges over a rolling 30-day period. Negative values indicate net outflows and accumulation, while rising readings indicate a slowdown in demand.
As of February 1st, this indicator is near -2.25 million SOL, indicating strong buying pressure. By February 3rd, it had fallen to about -1.66 million SOL. In just two days, foreign exchange outflows fell by nearly 26%, indicating that accumulation is slowing.
Sponsored Sponsored
This decrease in purchases comes as unstaking accelerates and the amount of SOL available for trading increases. When supply increases while demand weakens, prices tend to fall precipitously.
At the same time, speculative activity is increasing.
According to HODL Waves data, which categorizes wallets based on holding time, between February 2 and February 3, the share of the 1-day to 1-week cohort increased from 3.51% to 5.06%. This group typically represents short-term Solana holders who enter during periods of high volatility and exit quickly.
Similar behavior appeared in late January. On January 27, when SOL traded around $127, this cohort held 5.26% of the supply. By January 30, the company’s share had fallen to 4.31% as the price had fallen to $117, a drop of nearly 8%.
This pattern suggests that speculative money is aiming for short-term bounces rather than long-term holdings, increasing the risk that bounces will fade.
Sponsored Sponsored
Key Solana Price Levels Still Imply $65 Risk
Technical structures continue to reflect weaknesses found in on-chain data. SOL is still trapped within the descending channel that has been driving the price decline since November. After losing the important $98 support zone, the price is currently trading around $96, near the lower end of the channel.
If this support fails, the next major downside target will be around $67 based on Fibonacci predictions. A deeper move could extend towards $65, consistent with a full measured 30% breakdown of the channel.
However, recovery remains difficult. The first level that Solana must recover is $98, followed by stronger resistance around $117, the upper bound of several January bull runs. A sustained move above $117 would be required to neutralize the bearish structure.
Until then, downside risks remain high.
As staking collapses, exchange buying weakens, and speculative positions rise, more SOLs are entering circulation at the same time as technical support weakens. Unless long-term accumulation recovers, Solana could continue to undergo a further severe correction towards $65.
