Bitcoin has entered a critical phase after the recent correction pushed the price to the $70,000 level. Viewed through a macro lens, this move exposes BTC to increased downside risk.
Several on-chain indicators and technical indicators are currently consistent with a bearish outlook. However, large holders are actively accumulating assets and trying to slow or reverse the development trend.
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Bitcoin loses major on-chain support
Bitcoin has fallen below the true market average for the first time since September 2023. This indicator reflects the total cost base of actively circulating supplies. Trading below that indicates weakening confidence among participants and indicates a structural change in market behavior.
The loss of this anchor confirms the deterioration that has been building since late November. From a medium-term perspective, Bitcoin is currently confined within a broader valuation range. Although the upside momentum is weakening, downside pressure continues to build across multiple time frames.
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On the downside, realized prices near $55,800 represent historic levels for long-term capital to come back in. On the upside, the true market average of about $80,200 has turned into resistance. This configuration limits the potential for recovery and increases the likelihood of further decline.
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Bitcoin macro outlook suggests 37% crash
This structural weakness is consistent with the macro bearish setup seen on the chart. Bitcoin is breaking out of the head-and-shoulders pattern it has been developing for several months. This formation has a forecast downside of approximately 37%, with a target of $51,511 if fully realized.
A massive 20% decline over the past week has accelerated this breakdown. Rapid selling pressure confirmed the breakout of the pattern neckline and strengthened the bearish momentum. Such moves often lead to follow-through declines as trapped long positions are unwound.
The next important support below $70,000 is $68,072. A loss of this level would justify a bearish forecast. A decisive break would likely trigger additional liquidations, increase volatility and accelerate price movement towards lower structural levels.
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BTC whale dives to the rescue
Despite the strengthening bearish signals, Bitcoin whales are actively trying to prevent further declines. Addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC accumulated over 50,000 BTC in just 4 days. At current prices, this cumulative amount is more than $3.58 billion.
This action reflects strategic positioning rather than speculative trading. Large holders often accumulate during periods of fear, especially after sharp corrections. Bitcoin’s drop below $75,000 appears to have created an attractive entry zone for long-term funds.
If whales continue to accumulate, pressure from sellers may be absorbed and prices may stabilize. Historically, such activity has preceded short-term rebounds. However, whether the impact is sustained will depend on overall market sentiment and whether retail selling pressure subsides.
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BTC price is about to drop below $70,000
Bitcoin prices are trading around $69,500 at the time of writing, after falling 20% in a week. As of now, BTC has yet to close a daily candle below the $70,000 psychological support. This level has acted as a demand zone in previous corrections and is critical for short-term stability.
In the short term, downside risks remain high. Selling is likely to accelerate if the price falls below $68,442. In that scenario, Bitcoin could fall towards $65,360. Losing that support could cause BTC to fall further towards $62,893.
Alternatively, whale accumulation could influence the direction of prices. If $70,000 is successfully defended, Bitcoin could rebound towards $75,000. Retrieving that level as support would invalidate the immediate bearish thesis, and if momentum improves, the path to $80,000 would be reopened.
