After falling to around $75 on February 23, Solana’s price has rebounded nearly 9%, with most of that gain still above $82.
This type of rally usually attracts strong buyers because it suggests the worst may be over. But that’s not what’s happening this time. Investors who typically step in during a recovery, i.e. long-term holders, have instead exited. This has created an unusual disconnect between price and confidence and helps explain why Solana’s rally is already facing pressure.
Despite price rebound, long-term holders’ purchases fell by nearly 62%
The clearest sign of weakening confidence comes from the HODLer Net Position Change indicator. This metric measures how much long-term holders, defined as wallets that have held Solana for more than 155 days, have increased or decreased over a rolling 30-day period.
On February 10th, long-term holders added approximately 1.5 million SOL. By February 24, that number had plummeted to just 564,317 sols. This represents a cumulative decrease of approximately 62.5% within two weeks. This change is particularly significant because this decline also occurred at a time when Solana prices were stabilizing and recovering.
Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.
Simply put, Solana’s strongest holders were actively buying earlier this month, but their confidence has waned significantly. Such a sharp decline in accumulation suggests that investors are no longer convinced that the current rally is the beginning of a sustained recovery. Despite the SOL price rebound, Hodler positioning is at the lowest monthly level.
Disclaimer: This does not mean that long-term holders are selling en masse, but it does indicate that their buying momentum is rapidly weakening.
This change is not limited to the oldest holders. Intermediate-term holders who have held Solana for one to three months are also reducing their exposure. The company’s share in the total supply share declined from 19.52% on January 25 to approximately 14.08% on February 24. This means that the company’s supply share has declined by 27.9% in relative terms in just one month.
What makes this important is timing. This drop continued even as Solana’s price increased over the past two days. Rather than buying the rebound, many holders appear to be using it as an exit opportunity.
22 million SOL supply wall hinders recovery
The lack of strong buying becomes even more concerning when combined with Solana’s cost-based distribution data, which reveals where investors last bought a coin.
This data shows that supply is concentrated between $82.81 and $83.79. More than 22.16 million SOLs were accumulated in this range. This is one of the largest clusters of supply currently outperforming prices.
This range represents the break-even zone for many holders who bought previously and held during previous declines. When prices return to entry levels, these investors often sell to recover losses or reduce risk in weak markets.
This helps explain why Solana’s rally has already stalled around $82.91. The price has encountered a large group of holders waiting for a break-even exit.
At the same time, long-term holders’ accumulation has already fallen by more than 60%, meaning there are fewer strong buyers able to absorb this supply. This imbalance between buyers and sellers makes it difficult for the rebound to continue.
Solana price trend still suggests 17% decline
Solana’s technical structure adds further risk to the current rebound. Prior to this rally, Solana confirmed a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern and fell to around $75.69.
Even after the recent pullback, the pattern’s expected downside target still points to the $68.71 region. A fall from its current price of around $82.52 to $68.71 would represent a further decline of around 17%. This means that the recent 9% pullback has not yet invalidated the broader bearish structure. Additionally, Solana attempted to break above the $82.91 mark but failed, primarily due to the supply cluster around that level that we highlighted earlier.
For the recovery to strengthen, Solana first needs to break and sustain above the immediate resistance formed by the supply cluster at $82.91. If this level is cleared, the next resistance lies near $86.82. A break above $91.33 will completely invalidate the bearish pattern and confirm the end of the downtrend.
However, if it continues to be rejected at $82.91, downside risk will increase.
If Solana breaks below $80.89 again, it could quickly retest $74.96. A break below this would reopen the path to $68.71 and other lower levels, still an aggressive downside prediction from the bearish pattern.
