Pi Coin price has rebounded nearly 11% from its February 23 low, rising to the $0.174 zone. This type of recovery typically signals strength and attracts new buyers hoping for bigger gains.
However, this rebound may not be entirely bullish. Rather, it may be forming the final stage of a bearish structure. At the same time, retail traders are aggressively buying the dip, even as more detailed indicators point to a weakening recovery. This creates a situation where the rebound itself can increase the risk of a new decline due to technical patterns.
Pi coin rebound is happening amidst a bearish pattern, but retailers are buying anyway
Pi Coin’s rebound is currently forming an inverted cup-and-handle pattern, a bearish structure that often leads to price declines. The current price rise represents the handle part of this pattern. Handle rebound often appears strong, but it usually falls below resistance and fails, leading to failure.
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At the same time, monetary and volume indicators show a dangerous contradiction.
On-balance volume (OBV), which tracks buying volume, has been steadily rising since February 23rd. This shows that traders are actively buying the dip and supporting the pullback. A push above the downtrend line could sustain the interest of entrants and further extend the dangerous rebound.
The Money Flow Index (MFI), which uses price and volume to measure purchasing pressure, supports this behavior. From February 16th to February 23rd, Pi Coin price continued to decline and formed a low price. However, MFIs formed higher lows during the same period. This creates a bullish divergence in MFIs.
A bullish divergence occurs when buying pressure increases even though prices are falling. The rise in OBV-MFI supports aggressive bullish buying. But this is what makes the situation dangerous. Retail purchases are likely increasing, but PI prices are still trapped in a bearish structure. This creates a potential trap condition.
Momentum is building, but price strength remains weak
Weaknesses become more apparent when we look at momentum strength compared to price structure. From January 27th to February 25th, Pi Coin price formed an even lower high. This means that the rebound remained weaker than the previous rally, confirming that the overall trend is still down.
At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures the strength of momentum, rose even higher. This creates a hidden bearish divergence.
A hidden bearish divergence occurs when price fails to break through resistance despite increasing momentum. This usually indicates that buyers are losing control, and the rebound could quickly reverse and extend the broader downtrend. If this occurs within a bearish chart pattern, the likelihood of a breakdown increases.
This confirms that despite the rising price of Pi Coin, sellers may still be in control. But if retailers buy, who will sell?
Large investors are secretly selling Pi network tokens
This contradiction becomes even more pronounced when we consider large-scale financial activities. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks whether money moves in and out of assets, has been steadily declining and remains below zero. This shows that overall capital is still flowing out of Pi Coin.
This creates a further bearish divergence. The price of Pi Coin was on an upward trend from February 11th to February 24th, but CMF, a technical proxy for big money, was on a downward trend.
This strongly suggests that while individual traders continue to buy, large investors are likely selling in preparation for a rebound. This type of behavior often precedes a failure. Retail buying can temporarily help push prices higher, but without the support of large investors, this movement becomes unsustainable. This explains why the Pi Coin rebound can be misleading and could be a trap.
Pi Coin price level now determines whether recovery fails or survives
Pi Coin is currently approaching the most important stage of this structure. If Pi Coin falls below $0.161, we could see a bearish inverted cup and handle breakdown. This could push Pi Coin towards $0.130 (current low) or even drop to $0.122 and potentially record a new low.
This confirms that the 11% rebound is just a temporary recovery within a larger downtrend. However, recovery is still possible if buyers regain control.
A break above $0.173 will signal a return to the early strength. The bearish pattern will weaken significantly if it moves above $0.193. The bearish structure will be completely invalidated above $0.207.
Until these resistance levels recover, there remains a risk that Pi Coin’s rebound will not be the beginning of a recovery. In fact, it may be a stepping stone to the next decline.
