Bitcoin (BTC)’s recent recovery has lifted sentiment across the crypto market, with traders pointing to renewed momentum after weeks of volatile price action.
But this rebound also brought back something else. It’s a new allegation against Jane Street, a global quantitative trading firm and leading liquidity provider. But how much of the circulating narrative is supported by evidence, and how much remains speculation? As this theory resurfaces, it has become essential to separate verifiable facts from online speculation.
Jane Street’s 10am Bitcoin Selling Suspect: Manipulation Theory or Market Myth?
Jane Street is dominating the conversation on crypto Twitter, and the surge in attention extends beyond social media. According to Google Trends data, search interest for “Jane Street Bitcoin” recently reached an all-time high. This shows that public curiosity is rapidly increasing.
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What is driving this new focus? A quick search on X brings up numerous posts linking Jane Street to Bitcoin price trends. At the center of the debate is an alleged pattern of Bitcoin sales at 10 a.m. ET.
Since 2024, we have repeatedly noted that Zero Hedge describes what we describe as a repeating pattern. According to him, Bitcoin often experiences sharp declines around 10 a.m. ET. Jane Street is often named in connection with the theory.
Similar suspicions surfaced in December 2025.
“Jane Street is one of the largest high-frequency trading companies in the world. They have the speed and liquidity to move the market in minutes. The actions seem simple: 1. Release BTC on open. 2. Push price into liquidity pocket. 3. Re-enter at the low. 4. Repeat daily.” Bull Theory posted.
At the time, BeInCrypto reported that no regulators, exchanges, or independent data sources had confirmed any coordinated activity. In particular, new allegations against Jane Street recently surfaced after Terraform Labs’ administrators sued the trading company.
“Who caused Luna and UST to crash to zero in 2022 and the entire crypto market to collapse? Jane Street. The same Jane Street who was accused of the ‘10am operation’ also spearheaded the collapse of Terra in 2022,” Ash Crypto said.
Jane Street denies any wrongdoing and says she intends to defend herself in court. Nevertheless, some analysts have begun to link the timing of the lawsuit to the price of Bitcoin.
Several X commentators argued that the lawsuit against Jane Street may have caused the scheduled 10 a.m. sale to be suspended. According to this story, the price of Bitcoin was able to rise over the past two days due to the absence of the previously observed intraday decline.
In a detailed post, Justin Bechler suggested that the alleged “daily flash crashes” had previously stopped after Terraform Labs’ lawsuit filing became public early last year.
However, he claims that the 10am pattern then resumed in Q3 2025. By December, he said, intraday declines had returned in earnest.
“Essentially, the 10 a.m. dump stopped the moment the lawyer watched over the shoulder of Jane Street and started again when the heat subsided,” he wrote. “Bitcoin should be worth at least $150,000 right now, and we all know that. A federal lawsuit was filed yesterday in Manhattan that explains exactly why that’s not the case.”
Bechler further noted that Jane Street is disclosing a large IBIT position in its 13F filing for Q4 2025. Additionally, MicroStrategy’s holdings increased significantly.
“This looks like bullish accumulation unless you understand what Jane Street actually is. Jane Street is one of only four companies authorized to create and redeem in-kind IBITs. The others are Virtu Americas, JPMorgan Securities, and Marex. Jane Street is also an authorized participant in the Fidelity and WisdomTree Bitcoin ETFs,” he said.
He said the role gives the company “direct access to the mechanism that ties ETF stock prices to actual Bitcoin.” Bechler said Jane Street can move Bitcoin in and out of ETF structures, arbitrage price differences between the fund and the spot market, and hold inventory positions at scales far greater than typical market participants.
He also added that the 13F only shows long positions in stocks and does not require disclosure of options, futures or swaps.
“While Jane Street reports that it owns $790 million in IBIT stock, there is nothing in its filings about whether those stocks are hedged with puts, offset with futures sales, or whether they have a collar around them that makes the company’s net Bitcoin exposure zero or negative,” he said.
He pointed out that the public only sees what appears to have accumulated. In reality, this position could represent a significant short exposure, similar to a long, as the offsetting leg of the trade remains hidden under current disclosure rules.
He added that Form 13F is only a snapshot of one side of the balance sheet. The other side is invisible to anyone outside the company.
“If the company owns $790 million of IBIT stock and offsets that position with $790 million of put options or short futures, the net exposure is zero. If the derivatives book exceeds the equity position, the net exposure is negative. , Jane Street profits when Bitcoin prices fall. In either scenario, the company has every incentive to use its privileged position as an authorized participant to suppress spot prices, cause liquidations, and harvest spreads,” Bechler commented.
Counterargument: Variability, not the villain.
Not everyone is convinced. Several analysts pushed back, arguing that the 10 a.m. pattern was exaggerated. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, directly questioned this narrative.
He pointed out that the mechanism he described, buying Bitcoin on the spot market and selling futures, is not unusual. This is “what other delta neutral funds are doing,” Moreno said.
Moreno also pointed to the lack of broader market context in the discussion. He highlighted that overall Bitcoin spot demand growth has been collapsing since early October 2025, and said this trend is a clear driver of the price decline.
Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into the Cryptoverse, echoed similar sentiments, arguing that Bitcoin has historically rebounded in the midterms of each year until early March. He added that each market cycle tends to create its own story to explain price movements.
“Bitcoin price movements are not a manipulated conspiracy,” he wrote.
Additionally, Jeff Park, chief investment officer at ProCap and advisor to Bitwise, suggested that this argument reflects a misunderstanding of how ETF plumbing actually works.
He said that focusing on individual companies such as Jane Street misses the structural mechanisms that govern all authorized participants (APs) within the Bitcoin ETF framework.
X users also began pointing out that Jane Street appeared to have removed all posts from the account after the lawsuit. This led to even more speculation online.
However, that claim was quickly proven false. Economist Alex Krueger revealed that Jane Street never posted to the X account in the first place.
“The amount of fake news and false narratives being spread in the crypto world is truly astonishing. There were no posts on Jane Street that should have been removed. The Wayback Machine can confirm that,” he posted.
Why does the 10am Jane Street sale theory resonate?
Retail traders have observed that while Bitcoin has shrugged off bullish developments such as the MicroStrategy acquisition and a favorable regulatory environment, price action remains weak and sentiment is in extreme fear. In this context, simple, identifiable explanations can be persuasive.
The apparent pause in the 10 a.m. pattern following a high-profile lawsuit fits neatly into the correlation-and-causation narrative often featured on crypto Twitter.
However, correlation is not proof. For now, the 10am theory is just a claim, not a fact.
