Welcome to US Crypto News Morning Briefing. A critical overview of the most important developments in cryptocurrencies of the day.
Grab a coffee and take a step back from the daily price charts. Some analysts believe that behind the noise, Bitcoin’s recent decline may be telling an entirely different story. So it’s not about the collapse, it’s about how the market itself is changing.
Today’s crypto news: Bernstein maintains BTC $150,000 prediction
Bitcoin’s latest correction may be familiar to crypto analysts, but experts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein argue that this cycle is fundamentally different from past declines.
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In a recent note to clients, the company described the current environment as “the weakest bear market in Bitcoin history.” In their opinion, this decline reflects a crisis of trust rather than structural damage to the ecosystem.
Analysts led by Gautam Chughani reiterated their Bitcoin price target of $150,000 by the end of 2026, citing:
A bear market without a crisis
Historically, bear markets in Bitcoin have been caused by system failures, hidden leverage, or large-scale bankruptcies. Episodes such as the collapse of large crypto companies in previous cycles exposed structural weaknesses and triggered cascading liquidations.
Bernstein argues that those catalysts do not exist today. Analysts noted that despite the deterioration in sentiment, there have been no major exchange failures, widespread balance sheet stress, or systemic failures across the crypto industry.
“What we are experiencing is the weakest bear market in Bitcoin history,” the analysts wrote, adding that the recent decline reflects a decline in confidence rather than an issue with Bitcoin’s underlying structure.
They also pointed to strong institutional linkages supporting the market, including spot adoption of Bitcoin ETFs, increased participation in corporate finance, and continued involvement of large asset managers.
The company said these factors mark a clear departure from earlier cycles dominated by retail speculation and weak infrastructure.
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Analysts say the current market story is shaped more by sentiment than fundamentals.
“Nothing will explode, nothing will come undone,” they wrote, arguing that concerns ranging from the AI race to the risks of quantum computing are contributing to a perceived downturn rather than a fundamental change in Bitcoin’s value proposition.
Macro pressures cause relative weakness
Bernstein also addressed concerns about Bitcoin’s recent underperformance compared to gold during periods of macroeconomic stress.
Analysts said the divergence reflects Bitcoin’s continued behavior as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a mature safe-haven asset.
High interest rates and tight financial conditions are concentrating capital flows into defensive assets such as gold and high-growth sectors such as AI.
In contrast, Bitcoin remains more sensitive to changes in global liquidity, meaning its recovery may be closely linked to changes in monetary policy and financial conditions.
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The firm expects Bitcoin ETF infrastructure and corporate funding channels to play a key role in absorbing new capital once liquidity conditions ease.
Structural changes reduce downside risk
Bernstein also dismissed concerns about leveraged companies holding Bitcoin and miners capitulating. Analysts said shareholders of major companies are structuring their debt to withstand a prolonged downturn.
In the cited example, Strategy, a large corporate shareholder, would only face a balance sheet restructuring if Bitcoin fell to around $8,000 and remained there for several years.
Meanwhile, miners are diversifying their revenue sources, such as reallocating power capacity to match demand in AI data centers. The company says this trend has reduced pressure on the mining economy and reduced the risk of forced sales during times of falling prices.
Analysts also acknowledged the long-term risks posed by quantum computing. However, they argue that these threats are not unique to Bitcoin and can affect all critical digital and financial systems. Analysts say this is expected to transition to quantum-proof standards over time.
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Here’s a rundown of US crypto news to follow today.
