Bitcoin price widened its adjustment range after the FOMC interest rate cut. The coin has fallen about 13% in the past 30 days and almost 4% in the past week. This movement remains in a slow and severe correction phase since the October peak.
But the two on-chain shifts indicate something that hasn’t appeared at any point before this economic downturn. These signals suggest that the correction could be close to turning if Bitcoin achieves the needed boost.
sponsored
Two indicators point to a possible change in direction
Short-term capitulation is now clearly visible. CryptoQuant’s realized P&L data shows that short-term Bitcoin holders are still facing significant losses. This usually happens near the end of the adjustment, rather than in the middle. This is because panicking and selling at a loss often indicates late-stage exhaustion.
This matches what you see in HODL Waves.
HODL Waves measures how much Bitcoin each “age band” owns, from very new to very old coins. Indicates which groups are accumulating or selling. The one-day to one-week cohort accounted for 6.2% of supply in late November. As of December 10th, the ownership rate was just 2%.
This is a significant 68% decline, indicating a concentrated short-term selloff that often completes a correction rather than starting a new selloff. Additionally, this cohort dumping pushes speculative money out of assets.
sponsored
Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.
The following signals are from exchange net position changes, which track the number of coins entering and exiting the exchange each day.
Net flow on November 27th was +5,103 BTC (coins moved).
By December 10th, flows had reversed to -43,292 BTC, a more than 8.4x reversal from inflow to outflow.
sponsored
According to CoinGecko, a similar change occurred between September 17th and September 25th. After that reversal, Bitcoin rallied towards an all-time high of over $126,000.
Now, the same combination of short-term capitulation and strong outflow is forming again. Together these create the cleanest trend-shifting setup of this entire fix.
sponsored
Does Bitcoin price need to rise 4% to break out?
If these signals indicate a reversal, Bitcoin price charts should confirm it. Bitcoin price is moving inside a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. When buyers and sellers slow down at the same pace, a symmetrical triangle forms. Since there are only two touch points on each side, both trend lines are weak. A little push can break the entire setup on either side.
The push is clear. Bitcoin needs a daily close above $94,140, which is only about a 4% increase from current levels. This level overlaps both the horizontal resistance and the top of the triangle. A clean breakout would open the way to $97,320 and then $101,850.
On the downside, the closest risk level is $90,180. Daily closes below this weaken our bullish view. If it breaks, $87,010 becomes the next major support. A loss would put $80,640 at risk and undermine the broader bullish view.
The setup is neutral at the moment, but it’s improving. A short-term capitulation and heavy outflows will give Bitcoin price a chance to exit the correction, but only if it achieves a 4% breakout.
