Bitcoin is once again attempting to break the downward trend that has held it back as the crypto king since late October. Prices have been hovering around $91,000 as investors watch for rare changes in market structure.
For the first time in over two and a half years, short-term holders outpaced long-term holders in realized gains, creating both opportunities and risks for BTC.
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Changes can be seen in Bitcoin
The MVRV long/short difference highlights a notable change in Bitcoin’s profit distribution. Typically, a positive value indicates that long-term holders hold more unrealized gains, while a negative value indicates that short-term holders have an advantage.
In the case of Bitcoin, the differential has fallen into negative territory for the first time since March 2023. This is the first time in 30 months since short-term holders last made a profit.
Such an advantage raises concerns, as short-term holders tend to sell aggressively when volatility increases. Their profit-taking behavior could put pressure on BTC prices, especially if the overall market weakens while trying to break a downtrend.
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Despite this change, there are encouraging signs in Bitcoin’s broader momentum. Exchange net position change data confirms that outflows are increasing across major platforms, indicating a shift in investor accumulation. BTC exiting exchanges is often treated as a bullish indicator, reflecting confidence in its long-term upside.
This trend suggests that many traders view the $90,000 range as a reasonable bottom zone and are bracing for a potential recovery. Sustained outflows will support price stability and increase the likelihood that BTC will break through the immediate resistance.
BTC price is doing its best
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $91,330, just below the resistance level at $91,521. A return to this level and support is essential for BTC to challenge the month-and-a-half-long downtrend. Without this breakout, upside momentum remains limited.
If short-term holders refrain from selling and accumulation continues, Bitcoin could rise toward $95,000. If it succeeds in breaking out of this level, BTC could head towards $98,000, indicating new bullish strength.
However, if short-term holders start taking profits, that pressure could push BTC back towards $86,822. A drop to this level would preclude a meaningful breakout, invalidate any bullish setup, and trap Bitcoin in a multi-week downtrend.
