Hedera (HBAR) price has fallen about 1.2% in the past 24 hours and is trading around $0.186. Despite the daily decline, it is up 7.7% this week and nearly 9% this month. On paper it looks stable, but beneath the surface the chart still shows bearish pressure.
However, volume and location data suggest that this configuration may be close to tipping.
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Purchasing pressure is quietly increasing behind the scenes.
Although HBAR’s structure remains under pressure thanks to the descending triangle pattern, two important signals indicate that the buyers have not left yet.
On-balance volume (OBV) is an indicator that tracks whether trading volume supports the direction of price, and since early October, it has repeatedly rebounded in price every time it approaches a downtrend line. These rebounds on October 1st, October 29th, and November 10th indicate that buyers continue to enter the bull market despite the failure to breakout so far.
If OBV exceeds 12.1 billion, it will break out of a clean trend line for the first time in recent weeks. If that happens, we will see real purchasing power return to HBAR.
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The Smart Money Index (SMI), which tracks the behavior of early investors, supports that view. The SMI green line is still slightly above the signal line, meaning activity and capital flows have not disappeared. SMI even managed to break out of the downtrend line on November 10th. However, it failed to trigger a strong rebound in HBAR prices.
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If both OBV and SMI break above their respective trend lines and stay above, it confirms that informed traders are rebuilding their positions. This would be an important indication that HBAR may be preparing for that moment of stress, as we will discuss next.
Short bias sets the stage for potential squeeze
Bybit’s 30-day liquidation map shows how unbalanced the market is. The total amount of short liquidations was approximately $14.41 million, while longs were only $6.81 million, skewing over 110% towards shorts.
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This unilateral positioning creates a classic short squeeze scenario. If HBAR price stays between $0.18 and $0.22, short-side traders will be forced to cover, which could create further buying pressure.
If this squeeze coincides with an OBV breakout, the move could quickly accelerate, targeting key resistance zones, as discussed in the next segment.
Key HBAR price levels that could dictate an exit
For now, HBAR remains within the same narrow range it has held since late October. Additionally, the trading pattern is bearish, or descending triangle.
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The first important level to clear is $0.196, which has rejected all pushes since November 10th. This means the bearish pattern is invalidated.
Above that, $0.206 becomes a breakout pivot, and a close above that could turn the short-term bias bullish and open the door to $0.233. A break above $0.206 could lead to a significant amount of short liquidation, further reinforcing the squeeze hypothesis.
On the downside, the winning line is $0.173. Below this, the daily close will erase the squeeze setup and keep HBAR firmly in bearish territory. In that case, $0.154 would also be exposed.
For now, HBAR is still in bearish territory, but if volume, smart money, and short positions align, it could eventually break out.
