HBAR prices continued to disappoint. The token is down about 26% over the past month and nearly 67% year-over-year, reflecting continued weakness in both price and participation. What makes the current moment even more important is where HBAR is currently trading. The price last tested it in October 2024, and could return to multi-month lows.
The chart breakdown is clear, with buying pressure steadily collapsing. However, one unusual indicator suggests that the downside may be nearing exhaustion. The important question is whether these abnormal values can become a problem now.
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The breakdown of bear flags is a signal of trend continuation risk.
On the 4-hour chart, HBAR has completed a textbook bear flag breakdown. A bearish flag forms when the price drops sharply, consolidates in a tight upward or sideways channel, and then falls again. This is a continuation pattern and not a reversal signal.
HBAR price briefly fell below the flag structure around the $0.109 level, and this movement is sustained without any meaningful rebound.
It is important to confirm this. Using the initial flagpole height, the predicted downside from the breakdown represents about a 28% movement from the flag’s upper range. From current levels, the downside price target would be the $0.068 zone. However, if the 4-hour candlestick can close above the bearish lower trend line, the risk of a breakdown could subside for now.
This level is roughly in line with the low zone last traded in October-November 2024, so this move is not just a short-term downside story, but carries a low risk for several months.
A second confirmation comes from exchange flow data. Buying pressure has been waning in recent weeks.
On December 5th, net outflows suggested push buying, with approximately 4.09 million HBAR leaving the exchange. Its behavior is steadily weakening. As of December 24, net outflows had shrunk to just 314,830 HBAR.
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This represents a reduction in net purchasing pressure of more than 92%.
Simply put, even as prices fell, buyers did not enter with conviction. Instead, inflows periodically turned positive, indicating that selling pressure quickly returned after a slight decline, suggesting a panic exit. If the bear flag breaks down and the buying pressure breaks down at the same time, the probability of continuation increases sharply.
This explains why this breakdown is not attracting aggressive push buying. The market is not yet treating this zone as a value.
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An abnormal value in a certain sentiment suggests that the downside may be concentrated.
The only counterforce to a bearish setup comes from sentiment.
HBAR’s positive social sentiment measure has collapsed from a peak around 76.97 in late October to about 1.62 now. This is almost a 98% reduction. It reflects extreme apathy rather than panicked enthusiasm.
Historically, similar troughs of local sentiment have produced short-term relief rallies. On November 9, when sentiment was at a local low, HBAR rose from about $0.17 to $0.19 in one session, an increase of about 12%. On December 1st, there was another drop in sentiment, preceded by a rise from $0.13 to $0.14, which led to an increase of about 14% within two days.
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This is an outlier that offers hope.
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However, context is important. These rallies occurred at a time when structural selling pressures had subsided and buying flows were still present. Currently, sentiment is collapsing as it is confirmed that Bear Flag has failed and demand has disappeared. This makes the signal less reliable.
When markets are weak, extremely negative sentiment can last longer than expected.
What happens next for HBAR price?
HBAR prices have reached a critical juncture. The main signal remains bearish. The breakdown of the bearish flag, the collapse of buying pressure, and the acceptance of levels below key support levels. As long as the price remains below $0.109, there is still downside risk towards $0.079 and potentially $0.068 (from the 4-hour chart).
The only thing that goes against that path is emotional exhaustion. If negative sentiment prompts another round of opportunistic bullish buying, HBAR could bounce back on short-term relief. However, unless the buying pressure clearly returns and the price regains the starting point of the downside impulse at $0.155, the rebound is likely to wane.
