Over the past month, Avantis (AVNT) has fallen more than 60%, extending a broader downward trend. The token hit an all-time high around $2.66 in September, but has since struggled to reach even half that level.
Although the stock is up more than 50% this week, the rebound may not be enough. For Avantis to avoid a monthly bear market, it needs two things: whale support and a clean recovery to the $1 level. This article explains why and how.
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Whales remain absent as key money flow indicators remain weak
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which measures whether large (presumably whale) funds are flowing into or out of a coin, continues to show weakness.
The last time CMF was above zero was between mid-to-late September, when the price of Avantis rose to an all-time high. When CMF fell below zero on September 26th, the token began a month-long decline.
Currently, inflows into CMF continue to be limited. It made new lows between October 16th and 23rd, indicating that large wallets have not yet accumulated. The CMF has curled up slightly, but the movement is still weak.
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For AVNT prices to show true strength, CMF needs to cross the zero line, but the October 20th attempt failed, leading to another short-lived price rally.
The Bull Bear Power (BBP) indicator, which compares buying and selling pressure by tracking how far prices depart from the average, has turned green since October 20th.
The green bar grows stronger with each session, all thanks to Avantis’ growing DeFi presence. However, there is a catch to this bullishness.
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In order to bring small and medium-sized investors into line with large investors, BBP needs to rise further while CMF turns positive. Until the whales join in, a bullish recovery remains speculative. Even a stronger BBP candle could mean partial bullish control and may not break out of a month-long bear market.
Avantis price pattern looks bullish, but divergence suggests caution
On the 12-hour chart, Avantis price is trading within a descending wedge. This is a bullish setup where price forms lower highs and lower lows within a contracting trend line. This usually indicates that the seller is losing control.
However, beneath the surface, a hidden bearish divergence appears between October 10th and 21st. During this period, prices fell off highs, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures buying and selling momentum, rose above highs.
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This pattern is often seen during short-term bounces in broad downtrends (monthly from AVNT price). This is a warning that the price’s upward movement may lose momentum.
To break out of this structure and invalidate the divergence, the price of Avantis must close above $1.00. This would confirm fresh buying pressure and pave the way for $1.32. This is a key resistance level that once served as strong support during the initial pullback.
A return to $1.32 could even trigger a broader rally for AVNT toward its previous high of $2.66.
On the downside, the token has to be worth more than $0.57. A break below that level could expose the wedge’s lower trendline at $0.46. The trendline itself has only two touchpoints, meaning it is relatively weak. A break could result in a quick correction, especially if CMF remains negative and BBP turns red.
