RAIN price has risen nearly 40% over the past 30 days and maintains a breakout structure. The price is currently trading just below $0.0104, but that level is no longer the real focus.
The active breakout structure points to a new expected high above $0.0110, more than 10% above current levels. While upside remains, momentum is fading, suggesting that sellers may just return to peak optimism.
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A new all-time high is the real goal, but sellers are still waiting.
The active breakout inverse head-and-shoulders structure predicts a new high near the $0.0110 zone, more than 10% above the current price. Traders are positioning at its predicted level, not the previous peak. The current decline in stock prices is not intended to take profits from past high prices. The question is whether RAIN can advance to the next step.
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On-chain behavior supports this view. Spent coin age band activity, which tracks the number of tokens of all holding ages moving on-chain and often reflects selling and profit-taking, has collapsed in recent days. Since January 22, spent coin activity has fallen from approximately 104.8 million to 25.4 million, a nearly 76% drop in just three days.
This sharp decline means that holders are not moving their tokens despite the price increase, indicating positive behavior in the short term. This indicates suppression rather than distribution. Participants seem to be waiting for the anticipated challenge of all time before acting. Simply put, sellers are backing out for now and the breakout path to $0.0110 remains intact. But this quiet phase is where the risks start to rise.
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Why are sellers likely to return near the expected ATH?
The first warning comes from the structure forming below the original breakout.
As rainfall continues to rise since early January, a secondary inverted head-and-shoulders pattern has begun to form. Unlike the previous breakout construction, this construction has a steeply upward sloping neckline and a right shoulder that is larger than the head. Its shape makes follow-through difficult. The expected upside from this structure is modest at around 13-14% and requires strong momentum to be successful.
Long-term momentum does not support its strength.
From January 6th to January 22nd, the price of RAIN made higher highs, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed lower highs. RSI measures price momentum by comparing recent advances and declines. If the RSI weakens even as prices rise, it indicates less strength and less buying pressure. This bearish RSI divergence appears before the expected ATH is reached, which is an important warning.
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The Money Flow Index (MFI) reinforces this concern. MFIs track buying and selling pressure using both price and volume. From January 6th to January 24th, RAIN prices were flat to slightly up, while MFI was on a downward trend. This indicates that the bull market is weakening even though sellers are still inactive.
This explains the superficial contradiction. Spent coins are decreasing because sellers are waiting. RSI and MFI are falling as buyers are not actively intervening.
A rally supported by suppressed sellers rather than expanded buyers is fragile. If the RAIN price eventually reaches the expected ATH zone, even moderate profit-taking (seller return) can tip the balance.
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The next important RAIN price level
RAIN may still reach new all-time highs. There is nothing in the data that completely blocks that path.
A daily close above $0.0110 would confirm an expansion beyond the breakout prediction and provide more room for a move towards $0.0128, primarily due to sentiment and continued momentum.
However, if the market hesitates near that zone, the risk increases quickly.
If sellers return and spent coin activity spikes around the predicted ATH, the first level to watch is $0.0099, where the recent structure begins to weaken. Anything below that and you’ll lose confidence in your setup.
A break below $0.0082-$0.0081 will invalidate the new right shoulder and head structure, opening the door to $0.0068 and a deeper correction phase.
