Dogecoin price remains under pressure. The token has fallen about 2% in the past 24 hours and has fallen more than 12% in the last month. Price trends are weakening, but the decline is slowing.
Although the chart structure remains bearish, on-chain activity suggests that the breakdown may not be complete yet. The next few sessions will determine whether DOGE falls deeper or stabilizes around current levels.
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Dogecoin price pressure increases due to end of short-term supply
Dogecoin is trading near the lower end of a declining price structure, forming a bear flag. This leaves downside risk active, especially if the support near $0.124-$0.120 fails. But what stands out is how speculative supply has behaved as prices have fallen.
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According to the HODL Waves indicator, the 1 week to 1 month hold cohort is typically the most aggressive swing trading group, with significantly reduced exposure. This metric breaks down hodlers by time.
On November 29, the group controlled approximately 7.73% of Dogecoin’s supply. As of December 23, that percentage has fallen to approximately 2.76%. This means that speculative positioning has decreased significantly in a short period of time.
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This is important because these holders tend to extend the downside when they panic sell. Their exit often relieves forced selling pressure near support.
Long-term holders quietly added as coin activity declined
At the same time as speculative supply is shrinking, long-term holders are showing early signs of accumulation. The 1- to 2-year holder population increased Dogecoin’s supply share from approximately 21.84% to 22.34%. The increase is small, but the signal is significant.
These holders typically add only when they believe the downside risk is starting to fade.
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Coin activity across the network, measured via the spent coins metric, supports that view. Spent coin activity has dropped sharply. The age range indicator for spent coins decreased from approximately 251.97 million DOGE to approximately 94.34 million DOGE. This means that the coin’s movement has decreased by more than 60%.
Low coin activity may mean fewer holders are in a hurry to move or sell their tokens. Historically, Dogecoin has seen similar drops in activity before short-term relief rallies. A similar deceleration occurred in early December, with the stock rising from around $0.132 to $0.151 (up about 15%) within three days.
While this does not guarantee a rally, it does indicate that the selling offensive is slowing down rather than accelerating.
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Key Dogecoin price levels that will determine down or recovery
The technical situation currently rests on a narrow price range. The $0.120 level remains the most important short-term support. If the daily close is decisive below this, Dogecoin price will be exposed to deeper downside towards the $0.112 zone and could fall if momentum strengthens.
On the positive side, the case for recovery hinges on regaining nearby resistance. A move back above $0.133 would indicate that the selling pressure is easing. A stronger recovery at $0.138 would confirm that buyers are regaining control and that the recent decline is a correction rather than the start of a larger breakdown.
Simply put, Dogecoin is at a crossroads. Although the price structure remains risky, on-chain data shows that speculative supply is leaving, long-term holders are gradually entering, and overall coin activity is drying up. If support holds, these factors could help stabilize the price. Even if it fails, the breakdown remains valid.
