Pi Coin price has been struggling to recover after its recent breakout attempt collapsed. The token is trading around $0.16 after failing to sustain gains above $0.19, the level reached during a bullish flag breakout attempt on February 17th. The breakout was expected to be a nearly 60% rally, but the move quickly stalled.
Pi has fallen since then, raising concerns that the broader downward trend is still intact. However, beneath this weakness, certain technical signals suggest that a bounce attempt may still be underway. The bigger question is whether retail buyers alone can sustain it.
Hidden bullish divergence keeps bounce hopes alive
Pi Network’s recent decline has created an interesting structure on the chart.
From February 13th to February 22nd, the price appears to be forming higher lows, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is forming lower lows.
RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the strength of buying and selling. This pattern is called a hidden bullish divergence and often indicates a temporary pullback within a broader downtrend.
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This explains why Pi Coin was able to stabilize near $0.16 despite failing to breakout. However, this signal remains very weak. To confirm the divergence, PI must rise above the $0.16 support level ($0.162 to be exact). A break below this level could temporarily weaken the hidden bullish structure and expose the price to further losses.
But momentum alone is not enough. The real test will be whether participation supports rebounding.
Collapse of social benefits and money flows
While the RSI indicates the possibility of an early rebound, other indicators point to a decline in confidence.
Social volume, which tracks how often Pi Coin is discussed across social platforms, collapsed precipitously. It went from a monthly high of 18 on February 16th to just 3 on February 22nd. This means an 83% drop in attention.
This decline is notable because previous breakout attempts were driven by increased social interest. With fewer participants talking about Pi, the demand needed to sustain the gathering is waning.
The last time social volume dropped to near similar levels was on February 9th, when the score dropped to 6 (the lowest point for the month at the time). Within the next two days, Pi Network’s price fell to an all-time low of nearly $0.13.
Currently, public interest is even lower at 3, and this waning attention could once again weaken price support and increase downside risk.
The same can be seen from the capital flow data. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks the buying and selling of large investors, has fallen steadily along with prices since February 18th. It also remains below zero, indicating that funds continue to flow out of the Pi Network rather than flowing into it.
This lack of capital support helps explain why the 60% breakout failed and why the recovery remains weak. Without a stronger inflow, the rebound will tend to stall, even if the RSI suggests a rebound.
Retail purchases are increasing, but may not be enough
However, some groups still show signs of accumulation.
On-balance volume (OBV), which tracks cumulative buying and selling pressure and is often used as an indicator of retail activity, has been rising since February 16, even as prices fell. This suggests that individual investors are buying on the spur of the moment.
The participation of this retailer is likely to keep Pi Coin price above key support levels for now. But retail alone is unlikely to drive a sustained recovery. Without support from large investors and stronger capital inflows, price rebounds often fail.
This leaves Pi Network in a vulnerable position. If PI sustains above $0.16, bounce attempts may continue towards $0.18 and even one of the most important levels, $0.20.
However, if the support falls below $0.16, a failed breakout could trigger a deeper decline towards $0.14 and eventually a new all-time low near $0.13. For now, Pi Network appears to be caught between waning institutional interest and continued retail buying.
