Bitcoin briefly dipped below $76,000 this week, causing a 7% drop in Strategy’s stock price. This has revealed a structural reality that markets can no longer ignore. The company’s entire 713,502 BTC position now exists on an exact cost basis.
This harsh reality transforms what was once a bet of corporate treasuries into a reference point that determines markets.
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When size becomes structure
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has accumulated approximately 3.57% of the total Bitcoin supply. This concentration means that the company has evolved from a large shareholder to part of the market structure itself.
“Saylor is not just bullish; he is the market,” CryptoQuant analyst Marthun said in a detailed assessment of Strategy’s position. “This is no longer passive ownership. This is market structure.”
The numbers highlight this change. As of February 1st, Strategy holds 713,502 BTC acquired for approximately $54.26 billion at an average price of $76,052 per coin. The company’s entire position was temporarily submerged on Monday when Bitcoin hit $74,500, its lowest since April.
Prices have since recovered to around $78,800, but this episode revealed how the $76,000 level has become a mechanical reference point. According to Maartung’s analysis, about 61% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is currently above market price, while 39% is below market price. The strategy’s huge position straddles exactly this line of equilibrium.
Pressure to continue purchasing
Despite the volatility, Strategy announced another purchase. Obtained 855 BTC at an average price of $87,974. This shows continued commitment to Bitcoin financial strategy, but also brings additional structural pressures.
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The acquisition increases Strategy’s marginal cost of assets and increases its dependence on capital. More importantly, purchases are being made at prices around 7% above current market levels, meaning these new coins are already in the red.
“Purchasing 855 BTC for $87,974 increases your marginal cost, increases your dependence on capital, increases your scale, and directly translates into a -7% loss,” Martun said. “Saylor currently holds more BTC above the market price than below it, meaning the damage from the decline will be faster.”
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different types of leverage
Strategy’s positions are influential, but not of the kind typically associated with cryptocurrency trading. The company’s Bitcoin purchases are being financed through equity issuance, convertible debt, and other capital market instruments.
SEC filings reveal the extent of the funds available. STRK preferred stock alone has $20.33 billion of issuance capacity, with additional issuance capacity across STRF ($1.62 billion), STRC ($3.62 billion), STRD ($4.01 billion), and common stock ($8.06 billion).
However, this reliance on capital markets creates potential feedback loops. When the price of Bitcoin falls, so does Strategy’s stock price. The decline in stock prices will limit the company’s ability to raise capital through stock issuance. Reduced access to capital limits purchasing power and removes an important source of demand support from the market.
“Saylors are not as leveraged as traders, but their balance sheets still amplify their risk,” Martun explained. “When BTC falls, MSTR stock weakens and capital demand slows, reversing the feedback loop.”
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What the market is actually testing
The current situation prompts comparisons with previous structural weaknesses in the cryptocurrency market. That’s not because Strategy is facing imminent collapse, but because its position has become large enough to shape market action.
“We’ve seen this structure before,” Martun pointed out, referring to Terra and FTX. “Not because they were evil, but because we relied too much on them. Saylor is not there yet. But with 3.57% of total supply, very high public visibility, prices stagnant on a cost basis, and ongoing purchases needed to protect the structure, the situation is clear.”
On-chain metrics support the cautious outlook. The realized cap remains stagnant, indicating a lack of significant new capital inflows. The output expenditure return (SOPR) remains below 1, indicating that short-term holders are selling at a loss. Unless spot volumes and ETF flows improve, the price recovery is likely to lack structural support.
“Price near the average does not mean safety. It means concentration,” Martin concluded. “Markets don’t test stories. They don’t test beliefs. They test how dependent price movements are on size, concentration, funding structure, and continued participation.”
For now, unless the feedback loop linking Bitcoin prices, Strategy’s stock, and access to capital markets turns negative, the market is likely headed for a range correction rather than a sharp collapse.
