Zcash price has accomplished something important after weeks of decline. Since January 19th, ZEC price has rebounded nearly 15%, rising from a low of around $336 to around $362. This move came days after a bearish pattern break was confirmed, exactly the type of setup that often traps aggressive sellers.
The structure still appears unstable on the surface. But underneath, accumulation is quietly accelerating. Now the focus shifts to one level. Zcash is about 9% below the key Fib level, which also brings the key EMA line into focus. Whether prices are able to regain those levels may determine whether this rally remains just a rebound or turns into something bigger, perhaps an upswing.
Rebound brings 100-day EMA back into focus
The rebound didn’t come out of nowhere.
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After the head-and-shoulders breakdown was triggered, Zcash price briefly fell to $336 before buyers stepped in to trigger the trap.
Since then, the price has risen about 15% and stalled just below the 100-day EMA (exponential moving average). EMA is a trend indicator that gives more weight to recent prices.
The last time Zcash recovered its 100-day EMA was on December 3rd, but the price has risen more than 70% in the weeks since. This history does not guarantee recurrence, but it explains why this level is so important now.
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At the same time, sellers are still operating near resistance. ZEC has struggled to break above the stalled $386 level on this rally, indicating that supply is not going away. This makes the bearish structure technically viable. The question is whether the buying at the bottom is strong enough to force a recall anyway.
The answer starts with who made purchases after January 19th.
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Whales increase as the power of spot buying increases
On-chain data usually shows accumulation where it matters most.
Over the past 7 days, Megawhale (top 100 addresses) has increased its ZEC holdings by approximately 9%, raising the balance to approximately 42,623 ZEC. This means a net accumulation of nearly 3,500 ZEC during the rebound phase.
The standard whale wallet followed suit. The holdings of this cohort increased by approximately 5%, bringing the balance to approximately 10,182 ZEC. This corresponds to an additional 480 ZEC accumulated over the same period.
In total, since January 19, the whales have added approximately 4,000 ZEC. This is not buying at a high price. This is a buildup after confirming a breakdown in hopes of strong price movement. However, the smart money has completely disengaged, suggesting that expectations for a short-term rebound are minimal.
Momentum indicators support that view. From January 14th to January 24th, the price of ZEC was in a downward trend, but the money flow index rose, creating a bullish divergence.
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MFIs measure buying and selling pressure using both price and volume, which are potential bullish buying indicators. If MFI rises while the price falls, it is a signal to buy under the surface. This pattern often protects against potential downsides.
Derivative placement adds another layer. After recent movements, leverage has been reset and is now roughly balanced. Binance ZEC perpetuals remains slightly above short liquidations over the next 30 days at $26.37 million and longs at $22 million.
This imbalance means that prices don’t need a complete trend reversal to rise. Even a moderate push can start forcing short covering.
All these points indicate the same thing. There is an accumulation.
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Zcash price levels that confirm or disable the bear trap
The structure has become simpler.
On the downside, if ZEC loses $335 to $336 at the daily close, the trap will fail. Once below that level, the bearish pattern remains active and the path to a deeper downside is re-opened.
On the upside, the major test lies around $386-$395 (0.236 Fib level), which is about a 9% upside from current levels. This zone coincides with the 100-day EMA. If the daily close is above this, it will reflect the December reclamation and the bearish structure will weaken significantly.
If this recovery materializes, the next bullish zone will be around $463, where the previous supply and liquidation cluster resides. Pushing beyond that completely disables the right shoulder of the head and shoulders pattern. A move above $557 will undermine the broader bearish thesis.
Until one of these levels breaks, Zcash price will remain in a narrow decision zone.
It’s easy to take home. ZEC has already rebounded by 15%, whales are becoming more vulnerable, and we are seeing buying pressure. Prices are currently only 9% below levels that historically allowed much larger moves.
