Pi Coin has struggled to gain meaningful traction, reflecting weak investor belief. Altcoins endured a difficult 2025, characterized by sustained selling pressure and limited recovery efforts.
Despite the temporary rebound, sentiment remains fragile. As Pi Coin enters 2026, expectations for a sustained recovery remain uncertain amid inconsistent demand signals.
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Pi Coin has not shown any special performance
Monthly return data highlights Pi Coin’s difficult first year. Since its launch in February, the token has recorded losses in most months. Only two periods delivered positive returns, highlighting the asset’s inability to maintain momentum.
The steepest decline occurred immediately after launch. In March, Pi Coin fell by 66.5%, wiping out early optimism for mobile mining networks. This rapid drawdown caused the negative trend to continue. Historically weak monthly performance suggests downside risks continue to outweigh upside expectations.
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However, February 2026 could be a short-term trigger. The first anniversary of an altcoin’s birth is often a milestone that attracts new attention. In the past, speculative interest surrounding the anniversary has caused short-lived gains in emerging crypto assets overall.
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Investors lost confidence early on.
Capital flow indicators further explain Pi Coin’s long-term weakness. Over the past year, assets have oscillated between inflows and outflows without establishing a clear trend. This indecision among investors is hampering attempts at price recovery.
Chaikin money flows highlight a sustained selling advantage. Since its launch, CMF has reached the oversold threshold of -0.15 five times. In contrast, the overbought level of 0.20 was reached only three times, indicating strong selling pressure.
Even if the CMF rises above the zero line, recovery remains uncertain. Historically, a significant trend reversal for Pi Coin required a CMF above 0.20. Without that certainty, there is a risk that the rally will rapidly decline amidst the new distribution.
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What do I need to recover my Pi Coin?
From a broader perspective, Pi Coin faces a steep hill to regain credibility. The altcoin would need to rise about 1,376% to regain its all-time high of $2.994, set in early March. Such a move would require a significant change in demand.
An early recovery signal will emerge if Pi Coin reverses to support at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.273. This level represents the first technical threshold that separates early recovery from consolidation.
Stronger confirmation is still a long way off. To maintain the bullish structure, the price needs to regain support at $0.662. Until then, Pi Coin is in a long rebuilding phase with limited upside potential.
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PI price may not grow much
In the short term, Pi Coin is showing tentative strength. The token holds above the key support level of $0.199. This floor has been tested three times without falling below the daily closing price, suggesting that buyers are defending this zone.
Maintaining this support will keep near-term momentum constructive. As long as $0.199 holds, downside risk remains contained. The move supports a cautiously bullish outlook for the coming weeks.
Pi Coin needs to rise 34% to offset December’s losses. Such a move would push the price towards $0.272. In the short term, the main goal remains to regain support levels at $0.224 and $0.246.
If you hit these goals, you’ll see sentiment improve. Gradually rising lows may attract speculative interest, especially if broader market conditions stabilize. Yet, quantity verification remains essential for sustainability.
Downside risks remain if investor confidence deteriorates. The bullish theory will be invalidated if the price falls below $0.199. Under that scenario, Pi Coin could fall below $0.188 and losses could accelerate amid panic-driven selling.
