Welcome to US Crypto News Morning Briefing. An essential summary of the most important developments in future cryptography.
The market is grabbing coffee as it is becoming brave for the pivotal October with signals, whispers of quiet liquidity and unusual safe haven flow. The mood is tense, the odds are tilted, and Bitcoin (BTC) is once again at the heart of speculation.
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The day’s crypto news: Bitcoin is approaching $120,000 to market almost certainly cut prices in October
Bitcoin is trading at $118,746, heading towards a psychological $120,000 milestone as investors are actively loaded into assets considered beneficiaries of loose financial terms.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market allocates a 99% chance of interest rate reductions in October, predicting a transition from 3.75% to 4.00% range.
The catalyst came from the ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday. This is one of the key labor market data points investors have been seeing. The data revealed 32,000 private employment losses in September. This marked the sharpest decline since March 2023, well below the expected profit of 51,000.
Compound interest concerns, August salary was revised to a -3,000 decrease from reported +54,000 employment. This means second consecutive month of contraction for private sector employment in the US.
Data and partial US government closures have blinded investors. Key economic reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), including non-farm pay, have been suspended on Friday. Even the October 15th CPI report could be affected if the shutdown is extended.
Against this background, ETFs continue to cause inflows into Bitcoin. However, if the Fed is hesitant, the market will remain vulnerable.
According to Tradfi Media, both Deutsche Bank and ING flagged the risk of long-term shutdown fallout, with Oxford Economics estimated that GDP could be reduced by up to 0.2% per week if closures were dragged. Still, seasonal optimism persists.
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Safe Haven Flow, Liquidity, and Epstein Angle
While Bitcoin was stealing the spotlight, veteran analyst IRA Epstein emphasized that gold and silver-fueled liquidity dynamics are also active.
In his October 1 metal wrap, Epstein pointed out that heals expectations and government paralysis as the driver behind the influx of safe haven assets.
“We thought we’d get a gold and silver gathering,” he said.
However, Epstein noted that caution is needed as volatility recovers. He emphasized that the bond and memo market also caught bids, reflecting broad uncertainty regarding the US policy data gap.
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For Bitcoin investors, this link between liquidity and asset behavior is impressive. The same tailwind as pushing gold high is reflected in the rise in the code. The tail consists of weaker dollars, bond market strength and safe rotations.
Unlike past shutdown cycles where volatile is often trapped, ETF flow intersections and almost certain Fed actions amplify Bitcoin’s movements. Still, some warn that the assembly is not invincible.
“A short closure will probably look like a blip in US stocks… but the long-term coma and public layoff president can cause material damage,” he reportedly cited Oxford’s Ryan Sweet.
That scenario could force the Fed to deeper cuts, but it could also cause risk-off feelings. This compares highly volatile assets like BTC.
With $120,000 in sight and a liquidity tailwind building, October could mark another decisive chapter in the institutionalization of Bitcoin.
This expectation is that Pioneer’s codes aren’t like speculative outliers, and act like a macrosafe shelter, even if political and policy uncertainty clouds the road.
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The chart of the day
Byte-sized alpha
Here’s a summary of more US crypto news that continues today:
