Ethereum (ETH) priced more than 23%, and it appears to have been defeated in August for three years, and ended with a strong memo in August. Unlike Bitcoin, which has struggled throughout the month, ETH prices show resilience.
However, September has historically been one of Ethereum’s weaker months, with only 3.20% in 2024 and 1.49% in 2023, with one red in the previous red September. Now, when the chart flashes a mixed signal, ETH can head towards a choppy month.
Long term holders may book profits
One of the key metrics to watch is Ethereum’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) which measures the overall profitability of its holders.
A high NUPL means that most wallets sit on profit. It’s often a signal that some wallets may benefit. Ethereum long-term holder Nupl is currently at 0.62, close to three months high.
In the past, similar levels have triggered corrections. On August 17, when NUPL touched 0.63, ETH fell from $4,475 to $4,077 (-8.9%). Later that month, at 0.66, ETH fell from $4,829 to $4,380 (-9.3%). This suggests that September could result in volatility or scope-bound action.
Historically, September has not been the strongest month for ETH. Its history, combined with the high Nupl, supports the case of chops.
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Still, the long-term basis continues to support a surge in prices. In an exclusive interview with Beincrypto, RAAC CEO Kevin Rusher explained.
“We hope that in September, Ethereum priced drivers will remain roughly the same as today, of which the growth trends for companies to acquire ETH for the Treasury Department is important.
This Treasury accumulation trend, along with Ethereum’s role in Defi and Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization, could help cushion downside movements, even if short-term volatility persists.
Cost-based heat maps highlight important resistance
Another important metric is the cost-based heatmap that shows where ETH was last accumulated. These zones often act as natural support or resistance.
The strongest support clusters ranged between $4,323 and $4,375, where over 962,000 ETH accumulated. Below that, additional zones exist between $4,271 and $4,323 (418,872 ETH) and $4,219 to $4,271 (329,451 ETH) to provide a buffer if Ethereum prices drop.
Heavy challenges are higher. Around 1.9 million ETHs were accumulated between $4,482 and $4,592, making this a formidable zone of resistance.
If the ETH price clears this, the momentum could expand to $4,956. When discussing Ethereum price action, we’ll go into this in detail
Technical chart sends signals at Ethereum price choppi
A two-day Ethereum price chart shows it breaking under the trend line in ascending order. This does not support a bearish reversal, but it suggests fertile momentum.
The relative strength index (RSI), which measures the speed and intensity of price movement, formed a divergence of bearishness.
This usually indicates weakened strength and potential for trades bound by scope.
If ETH recovers $4,579 (which almost breaks cost-based resistance), the key target is $4,956, which could potentially bring back momentum from the upward trend.
On the downside, look at the key support levels of $4,345 and $4,156. A break below $4,156 could open up even more negative side risk, but a sustained hold above $4,579 will keep $4,956 (nearly $5,000, a key psychological level) within reach.
But for Ethereum, that level couldn’t be the beginning of anything bigger, as summed up by the Rush.
“Yes, $5,000 is still a meaningful milestone. Psychologically, investors like rounds. What’s more, it’s the highest ever.
However, if Ethereum prices end at under $4,156 on a full two-day candle, the bullish story may take even longer to come true.
And with the long-term holder NUPL closed at a 3 month high, discussions about choppiness find more weight.
Disclaimer
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