Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe has warned that most altcoins may not survive until 2026, citing poor structural performance, increased competition, and flawed token economics.
His outlook comes amid growing uncertainty about the trajectory of the crypto market in 2026. While many analysts predict a prolonged economic downturn, others say conditions could be ripe for a new bull market.
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2026 Altcoin Shakeout: Why many tokens will fail while a select few will survive
In a recent YouTube video, Van de Poppe said that the assumption that “altcoins will always come back” is dangerous. He claims that the past year has been a tough wake-up call, with most altcoins performing even worse than in 2022.
“This has been a tough bear market year as most altcoins have fallen by around 90%, and I don’t think most of them will ever come back,” he said.
The analyst also outlined several reasons why many altcoins may face difficulties next year. The main reasons cited are poor tokenomics and financial mismanagement. According to Van de Poppe,
“The number one reason most altcoins don’t survive is that the founders messed up their finances, messed up their tokenomics, or hit a recession so big they couldn’t recover from it.”
The prolonged market downturn itself is another important factor. The analyst described this as the “longest bear market” in crypto history. Van de Poppe likened the current situation to the aftermath of the bursting of the dot-com bubble.
“If you look at the crash after the dot-com bubble, almost all the projects and companies that were part of the internet during that period never came back,” he said.
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Rapid technological advances are also reshaping the competitive landscape. The analyst cited the previous generation of projects as an example, explaining that newer, more efficient solutions are overtaking many altcoins built in previous cycles.
In some cases, the original problems these projects were intended to solve no longer exist, reducing their relevance and long-term viability. While institutional adoption is largely positive for the cryptocurrency industry, it can be more detrimental to smaller projects.
“Using the example of Neo in 2017, there is a better solution to the problem they wanted to solve at the moment…As institutions come in, the impact will be a net positive for the industry as a whole, but a net negative for the smaller teams that can’t compete,” he added.
The analyst warned that most altcoins will fail by 2026, but stressed that some are in a position to survive. According to his framework, the altcoins most likely to survive are those that exhibit a disconnect between price performance and underlying growth.
He argued that projects with increasing on-chain activity, increasing total value locked (TVL), increasing trading volume, and increasing fee generation are likely to survive in the long term, despite low or declining token prices. He highlighted Arbitrum, Aave, and NEAR as examples.
“While Arbitrum’s current price is at a new low compared to that period, the underlying growth of the ecosystem is up nearly 200% over the same period. That’s where you find quality altcoins,” Van de Poppe said.
This outlook is consistent with the broader industry view that a widespread altcoin season may not materialize and that only a select few assets will benefit as the market matures.
Therefore, we expect the gap between surviving and failing altcoins to widen further in the next cycle. While this shakeout could lead to short-term losses, it could ultimately strengthen the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem by focusing value on more resilient and fundamentally sound projects.
