A powerful and unusual wave of global capital is flooding the U.S. market. Foreign investors are buying U.S. stocks at a record pace, demand for U.S. Treasuries is realigning at a structural level, and capital flows into the country are accelerating toward the end of the year.
At the same time, U.S. consumer debt reached an all-time high. For crypto and equity investors, the magnitude and direction of these flows signals a major shift in risk appetite and global macro positioning.
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Foreign investors drive record stock purchases amid historic government bond holding restructuring
Retail investors outside the U.S. bought $646.8 billion in U.S. stocks in the 12 months ending in September 2025, according to data cited by Yardeni Research.
This is 66% above the 2021 peak and the highest level on record, with flows doubling since January.
Buying is not limited to US stocks. During the same period, foreign private investors purchased a total of $492.7 billion in U.S. bonds. Reflecting strong global demand for dollar-denominated safety, 12-month subscriptions to non-U.S. Treasuries have exceeded $400 billion for the fourth year in a row.
“Everyone wants US assets,” said analysts at Kobessi Letter.
The composition of foreign Treasury holders is changing in ways not seen in recent decades.
China’s share of foreign government debt holdings fell to 7.6%, the lowest level in 23 years and a 20% decline in 14 years. The UK’s share quadrupled to 9.4%, close to its highest level ever. Japan remains the largest foreign holder, but now accounts for 12.9%, a decline of 26 points over the past 21 years. Sponsored Sponsored
These changes signal a long-term reallocation of sovereign and private capital, a trend that has direct implications for interest rates, liquidity, and market volatility.
Domestic investors turn risk-on, but record consumer debt adds complexity
U.S. investors have poured an unprecedented $900 billion into stock funds since November 2024, with half of that amount, $450 billion, in just the past five months, according to JPMorgan data.
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Bond funds added another $400 billion, while all other asset classes combined only brought in $100 billion.
Flows into U.S. stocks exceeded inflows into all other asset classes combined, reinforcing the strength of the bid for U.S. risk assets.
U.S. households are under increasing financial pressure while institutional and foreign investors increase their exposure. Total credit card debt in the United States rose to $1.233 trillion in the third quarter of 2025, the highest level ever.
This disconnect between market optimism and consumer tensions raises questions about sustainability, revenue resilience, and the timing of potential policy shifts.
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Seasonality and bullish outlook lift sentiment
JPMorgan expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 next year, a view reinforced by strong seasonal tailwinds. The forecast comes as the market anticipates the bank’s “everything goes up” prediction it shared just over a week ago.
December has historically been the strongest month for U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 index up 73% since 1928 and an average return of +1.28%.
For both crypto and stock markets, the surge in capital inflows to the US signals either growing confidence in US assets or a lack of attractive alternatives abroad.
Investors will be watching to see whether these inflows accelerate in 2026, how Treasury demand changes as global asset holdings rebalance, and whether record consumer debt hampers macroeconomic momentum.
Both traditional markets and digital assets are entering a potentially decisive phase as liquidity builds and seasonality strengthens.
