Bitcoin prices narrowly avoided a severe collapse this week, dropping to around $98,900 at one point before rising 2.1% in the past 24 hours to trade around $103,700. Although this move has stabilized sentiment, the outlook for the market is still unclear.
To see a true recovery, Bitcoin would need to rise another 12% from current levels, which would ultimately shift the structure from caution to confidence and invalidate the ongoing bearish setup.
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Bearish crossover strengthens as money flows remain weak
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is facing pressure from a potential bearish crossover forming between the 20-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). EMAs smooth price data to emphasize trend direction, and when a short EMA falls below a long EMA, it often indicates that buyers are losing momentum.
A similar 50-day/100-day crossover on November 4 caused a 10% plunge in price, highlighting the risk of another leg down if this crossover completes.
At the same time, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks whether capital flows into or out of the market, continues to hover below zero. The CMF has been negative since late October and is still trapped below the downtrend line drawn since October 4th.
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Until the CMF breaks above that line and remains positive, large wallets are still holding back, indicating that substantial capital inflows have yet to return. Together, the weakening EMA and negative money flows explain why the rebound feels fragile despite short-term strength.
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Hodlers still not convinced after Bitcoin’s post-crash rebound
Even after Bitcoin’s rally, long-term holders have not started accumulating again. Hodler Net Position Change, which measures whether old wallets are being bought and sold, is still in the red.
From November 2nd to November 5th, the indicator fell from -43,810 BTC to -52,250 BTC, a decrease of 19.2%. This means that long-term investors sold an additional 8,400 BTC during the recovery, indicating that there is still no conviction.
Historically, meaningful recoveries only take hold once hodlers start adding to the stack. Their continued selling shows that confidence in this pullback remains weak and traders are driving most of the moves.
For Bitcoin price to turn bullish again, it needs to sustain above $103,000 and regain $105,600 in the near term. The key confirmation level lies at $116,500, approximately 12% above current price. Beyond this, the head-and-shoulders pattern becomes invalid and a stronger recovery phase will be seen.
However, if $103,000 fails, Bitcoin risks revisiting $98,900. A daily close below this will trigger a neckline breakdown. And that could push BTC price towards the pattern’s expected downside target of $83,100.
For now, Bitcoin has avoided disaster. However, the lack of significant capital inflows, weak hodler activity, and a looming bearish crossover suggest this rebound remains fragile. Bitcoin may have been able to escape the fall until the price rose 12% to regain its highs, but it is far from safe.
