Bitcoin prices have fallen about 2% in the past 24 hours and are down nearly 3% from yesterday’s highs. At first glance, there is nothing attractive about the price.
But things at the bottom of the chart, especially on-chain, have changed for the first time in almost three months, and something else changed this week. These two changes do not confirm an uptick as 2026 approaches, but they could be the first building blocks of an uptick.
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Momentum begins to change, but evidence is needed
Two signals appeared simultaneously. Although they are separate, timing is important.
The first is On Balance Volume (OBV). OBV measures buying and selling pressure through volume. From December 21st to December 26th, the price of Bitcoin was on an upward trend. OBV did not comply. It lowered the treble. This is a bearish OBV divergence. This explains why the price failed to break out (long wick on December 26th), as the small price increase was not accompanied by volume.
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This week, OBV broke above the trend line connecting these lower highs. This breakout suggests that stronger buying pressure is building. No signal is seen until the OBV exceeds 1.58 million. If that happens, Bitcoin price may finally react. That hasn’t happened yet.
The second signal comes from Hodler’s net position change metric. This tracks wallets held for more than 155 days. They are the slowest moving companies in the market.
On December 26, the indicator turned positive for the first time since late September. Long-term holders added 3,783.8 BTC. They don’t buy for short-term moves. They buy with confidence. This is the first guilty verdict in nearly three months.
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Relief rallies need both sides. OBV must be followed to the end. Hodler has to keep adding. The absence of one or the other is not enough.
Bitcoin price map that will determine the end or beginning of 2026
Bitcoin price still has work to do. The price level tells the truth.
Bitcoin failed to regain $90,840 for almost two weeks. This level rejected the price on December 12th and has blocked all attempts since then. Any pullback will feel temporary until the price rises above that level.
Above $90,840, the first real relief rally checkpoint is around $97,190. BTC price fell below that level on November 14th.
If the rally extends, the next zones would be $101,710 and $107,470.
On the downside, the support price is $86,915. It has been going on since December 19th, and a loss would leave $80,560 in room. Low year-end liquidity increases that risk. For now, based on long-term investor positioning, Bitcoin price could rise towards $90,840 or even beyond if the support at $86,910 holds.
