XRP price has remained under pressure since early 2026, continuing the steady downward trend that began in early January. Altcoins have repeatedly failed to regain key resistance levels.
Weak macro sentiment and geopolitical tensions are limiting upward momentum across the broader crypto market. Despite the continued decline, several historical and on-chain indicators suggest that XRP may be nearing a tipping point.
Losses for XRP holders are nearing an end
The net unrealized P&L indicator shows that XRP is still in surrender territory. This stage reflects that the majority of holders have unrealized losses. Capitulation usually marks the later stages of a downtrend, rather than the beginning.
Historically, XRP’s surrender phase lasted nearly a month before reversing. The current situation began in early February. If the previous pattern repeats, this period for XRP price could end in the first week of March. Less panic selling would stabilize prices and open the door to recovery.
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The Spent Production Return (SOPR) confirms that many XRP holders are still selling at a loss. It briefly moved above 1 in mid-February, indicating temporary profitability. However, the indicator quickly fell below 1, indicating renewed selling pressure.
It is significant that SOPR is approaching the 1 level again. Continuous movement above this threshold indicates that the coin is being sold at a profit. Historically, this change often coincides with an early recovery phase. If the sell-off continues to saturate, XRP price could gain room for a rebound.
What does XRP’s past tell us?
Seasonality data shows that over the past 12 years, March has delivered an average return of 18% for XRP. This makes it statistically the strongest month of the first quarter.
Although past performance does not guarantee future profits, past trends are important. However, external risks still remain. Escalating geopolitical tensions involving the US and Israel could impact risk appetite. Widespread financial uncertainty could delay the seasonal bullish trend.
XRP price levels to watch
XRP is trading at $1.29 at the time of writing, above the key support level at $1.27. This level coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, which is often referred to as the bear market support floor. Maintaining this threshold is essential to prevent deeper modifications.
Once the capitulation ends and macro conditions stabilize, XRP could rebound from $1.27 and challenge the downtrend line that has been active since January. A move above $1.51 will confirm a structural change. This level also coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, a key recovery benchmark.
On-chain data suggests limited resistance to the $1.76 to $1.80 range. Approximately 1.85 billion XRP has been accumulated within this zone, with a value of approximately $2.83 billion. There is a possibility that the holders who bought there will sell until the break-even point, creating a temporary resistance level.
However, the bullish outlook will be invalidated if the price cannot sustain $1.27. A break below the bear market support floor could send XRP towards $1.11. If global uncertainty persists, there is still a chance that the market will continue to consolidate sideways. For now, March brings both risks and opportunities for XRP price recovery.
